The Tankathon Thread

[Gorbachav55]

This thread might not be for everyone, which is fine.  But for those of us who want to keep an eye on the other teams who are actively trying to suck, we can commiserate here.  You can always see the odds at the tankathon website: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl.

Tonight wasn't a great night for the odds.  San Jose gave it their best, but lost it in the third.  Ottawa went down.  Buffalo did win, but I don't think they're really in the hunt for a top 5 spot this season.  

The biggest problem is Chicago.  They are in a spiral and still have Kane and Toews to unload.  It feels dirty hoping for a Chicago win, but if it keeps them from a top pick, I guess it's a good thing.  I just hope they lose in OT every night.

[DucksFan_08]

5 hours ago, Gorbachav55 said:

This thread might not be for everyone, which is fine.  But for those of us who want to keep an eye on the other teams who are actively trying to suck, we can commiserate here.  You can always see the odds at the tankathon website: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl.

Tonight wasn't a great night for the odds.  San Jose gave it their best, but lost it in the third.  Ottawa went down.  Buffalo did win, but I don't think they're really in the hunt for a top 5 spot this season.  

The biggest problem is Chicago.  They are in a spiral and still have Kane and Toews to unload.  It feels dirty hoping for a Chicago win, but if it keeps them from a top pick, I guess it's a good thing.  I just hope they lose in OT every night.

Never been a fan of tanking and I actually had pretty high hopes prior to the season that we would at least end pretty close to a playoff spot or even end up in a wild card spot. Now that we're 1/4 into the season all my hopes are out of the window and I'm pulling for the #1 pick. We also have pieces to unload, Klingberg, but the way he's playing I'm not sure there will be takers and maybe it helps us if he stays around 😄

[BombaysTripleDeke]

11 hours ago, Gorbachav55 said:

This thread might not be for everyone, which is fine.  But for those of us who want to keep an eye on the other teams who are actively trying to suck, we can commiserate here.  You can always see the odds at the tankathon website: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl.

Tonight wasn't a great night for the odds.  San Jose gave it their best, but lost it in the third.  Ottawa went down.  Buffalo did win, but I don't think they're really in the hunt for a top 5 spot this season.  

The biggest problem is Chicago.  They are in a spiral and still have Kane and Toews to unload.  It feels dirty hoping for a Chicago win, but if it keeps them from a top pick, I guess it's a good thing.  I just hope they lose in OT every night.

Watching Chicago against Edmonton last night and the Hawks were so brutal. I don’t know if we are going to out-bad them even if they don’t unload Toews and Kane. That franchise deserves to relive 50 years of not winning another cup.

For Buffalo, Tage Thompson is so good now. He’s our Troy Terry who has popped off crazy since last season.

Edited December 1, 2022 by BombaysTripleDeke

[dtsdlaw]

28 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Watching Chicago against Edmonton last night and the Hawks were so brutal. I don’t know if we are going to out-bad them even if they don’t unload Toews and Kane. That franchise deserves to relive 50 years of not winning another cup.

For Buffalo, Tage Thompson is so good now. He’s our Troy Terry who has popped off crazy since last season.

I don't think there's any chance we remain behind Chicago in the standings. They are eventually going to unload Kane, Toews, Athanasiou, and Domi (four of their top-6 forwards and 3/5 of their PP1), and they really have NOTHING behind those guys. And Jack freaking Johnson is currently #2 in TOI/game for them (probably because they're going to try to trade him too). They're going to be capable of massive losing streaks all season long that the Ducks will not match.

On the bright side, Erik Karlsson is single-handedly playing San Jose out of a top-5 pick and Arizona is going to have a backloaded set of home games in front of those ASU students (21 home, 11 away after the all star break) that's going to make their second half tank difficult. The Coyotes also don't have much of value to trade at the TDL that will help with their tank.

Ottawa seems likely to fire their coach soon and their roster is too talented to continue to suck all season long, so I think they eventually turn things around. So I think we're looking at Chicago in dead last, with Anaheim, Columbus, and Philly all within spitting distance of each other for the 28-31 spots in the league standings.

Edited December 1, 2022 by dtsdlaw

[BombaysTripleDeke]

Arizona was up two goals naturally just blew the league to spite us 

[Gorbachav55]

Philly is also looking pretty bad recently.  The Tortorella honeymoon didn't last very long.  They're going to be tough competition in this race down the toilet.

[dtsdlaw]

10 hours ago, Gorbachav55 said:

Philly is also looking pretty bad recently.  The Tortorella honeymoon didn't last very long.  They're going to be tough competition in this race down the toilet.

Maybe. But even after an 1-8-3 run over their last 12 games, they're still 7 points ahead of the Ducks, which is a LOT to make up in this league. They're also not really built for the post-TDL tank since they have hardly any pending UFAs outside of JVR (who has been injured since October 23rd anyway). And speaking of injuries, they'd also been without Atkinson, Konecny, and Laughton for most of that losing streak, but apparently all four of those guys are close to returning. JVR, Atkinson, and Konecny are 3 of their top-4 scorers from last season (the 4th being Giroux), so let's see what that team looks like when they get their top-6 forwards back. I'll be surprised if the Ducks catch them in the standings.

[tommer-1]

If Bedard goes #1 and Fantilli #2 and the Ducks end up in the #3 slot, are they taking:

 

Matvei Michkov, Russia, 5' 10" 159 lb., RW

or

Leo Carlsson, Sweden, 6' 3", 194 lb., C/W

 

????

[perry_mvp]

On 11/30/2022 at 10:11 PM, Gorbachav55 said:

This thread might not be for everyone, which is fine.  But for those of us who want to keep an eye on the other teams who are actively trying to suck, we can commiserate here.  You can always see the odds at the tankathon website: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl.

Tonight wasn't a great night for the odds.  San Jose gave it their best, but lost it in the third.  Ottawa went down.  Buffalo did win, but I don't think they're really in the hunt for a top 5 spot this season.  

The biggest problem is Chicago.  They are in a spiral and still have Kane and Toews to unload.  It feels dirty hoping for a Chicago win, but if it keeps them from a top pick, I guess it's a good thing.  I just hope they lose in OT every night.

I'm not too worried about Chicago unloading Kane and Toews when Anaheim is going to unload half it's defense, possibly some forwards and Stolarz.

[Gorbachav55]

7 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:

If Bedard goes #1 and Fantilli #2 and the Ducks end up in the #3 slot, are they taking:

 

Matvei Michkov, Russia, 5' 10" 159 lb., RW

or

Leo Carlsson, Sweden, 6' 3", 194 lb., C/W

 

????

As of right now, I would guess Carlsson.  Michkov is clearly the better prospect, but Carlsson's still a good prospect (he probably would have gone #1OA in the draft last summer) and carries far, far less risk.  

[Gorbachav55]

1 minute ago, perry_mvp said:

I'm not too worried about Chicago unloading Kane and Toews when Anaheim is going to unload half it's defense, possibly some forwards and Stolarz.

Fair point, although I think Kane and Toews might go sooner than the deadline, particularly if they can find a team to take half the cap hit.  The other main difference is that Toews and Kane are still good.  Anaheim's defense and Stolarz are not.  I don't think the Ducks can play any worse than they're already playing, even after unloading Klingberg and Shattenkirk.  There's still some depth left to go in Chicago's pit.

[perry_mvp]

16 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:

As of right now, I would guess Carlsson.  Michkov is clearly the better prospect, but Carlsson's still a good prospect (he probably would have gone #1OA in the draft last summer) and carries far, far less risk.  

I've been trying to find videos of the top ten prospects listed on tankathon just to do a little homework. The general feeling I'm getting is that after Michkov  they are decent but not overly outstanding. A pretty big drop off. Maybe as the season goes on someone starts to impress the scouts and jumps up. I would keep an eye out for Brayden Yager. Carlsson is getting some good press as well so it might be as of now a toss up between Carlsson and Yager.

[Gorbachav55]

1 minute ago, perry_mvp said:

I've been trying to find videos of the top ten prospects listed on tankathon just to do a little homework. The general feeling I'm getting is that after Michkov  they are decent but not overly outstanding. A pretty big drop off. Maybe as the season goes on someone starts to impress the scouts and jumps up. I would keep an eye out for Brayden Yager. Carlsson is getting some good press as well so it might be as of now a toss up between Carlsson and Yager.

I mostly follow draft prospects through The Athletic, and those guys have Carlsson as a clear step above the rest of the pack, so take that for what it's worth.

[Jasoaks]

Right now we are multiple pts behind the next worst team WITH games in hand....not that any one team can go on a winless streak and drop...but we are still likely to be so close to the bottom.... I really hope we don't drop more than to 2nd to last so we can basically be promised one of these great top 4 picks...

the only team that has games on us is SJ and they are 6 pts ahead...and the next 3 we are all tied in GP but are also all 7 pts ahead.... a lot can change, but we are sitting pretty chilling at the bottom right now lol

The only real factor is we have a stronger roster than Arizona or SJ imo.... well.... maybe Chicago too once they lose Toews and Kane. So I could still see us rising to 4th worst....which...well...if we do, we do

I forgot about how EK is basically keeping SJ from the bottom haha, i didn't expect that at all! But they will unload him I'm sure...

Edited December 2, 2022 by Jasoaks

[BombaysTripleDeke]

Good tank news tonight: Ottawa and Columbus both won

[Fisix]

I don’t think the market is ripe for an EK, Kling, Shatt, etc., not at their prices, and certainly not at the skill level sported by kling and shatt. 

[DucksFan_08]

1 hour ago, Fisix said:

I don’t think the market is ripe for an EK, Kling, Shatt, etc., not at their prices, and certainly not at the skill level sported by kling and shatt. 

Is there a limit to how many contracts you can retain on? Because we can retain salary like a boss. 

[Fisix]

2 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

Is there a limit to how many contracts you can retain on? Because we can retain salary like a boss. 

yes.  

Anaheim
ROSTER SIZE: 22/23
CONTRACTS: 45/50
RESERVE LIST: 65/90

Toronto can't take on any extra contracts because they've maxxed out.  Almost screwed them cause they needed an uninjured goalie and couldn't bring one up - no contract space to sign him:
ROSTER SIZE: 23/23
CONTRACTS: 50/50
RESERVE LIST: 69/90

[Jasoaks]

i just really hope PV can weaponize our cap space this time around...these past couple of seasons it's felt like other teams went ahead and did that and we just stood around doing nothing. We tried with Dadanov, I'll give him that, but that obviously didn't work out. And that's really obnoxious and still pretty upset we didn't get SOME compensation from Vegas/Ottawa's incompetence here.

I'm getting impatient...I don't know if I can handle another TDL / off-season without something really promising or exciting happening lol

[Gorbachav55]

5 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

Is there a limit to how many contracts you can retain on? Because we can retain salary like a boss. 

I think there is. I want to say it's two or three. 

[BombaysTripleDeke]

6 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

Is there a limit to how many contracts you can retain on? Because we can retain salary like a boss. 

It’s 3 and the ducks have all of them. I’m surprised that Verbeek hasn’t utilized retention or got assets for taking on bad contracts. Though, he did try to but got boned by vegas and Ottawa stupidity in the dadonov trade.

[Gorbachav55]

A mixed bag today.  Philly lost and San Jose lost (although it was to Ottawa, so at least the Senators got points).  But Chicago won (apparently the Rangers can't beat the worst teams in the league) and Arizona is winning, albeit against Vancouver.  I'd like to see that last game go to OT with Arizona pulling it out.

[Gorbachav55]

Well, I got half of my wish.  The Arizona - Vancouver game went to OT because of course Arizona blew the lead.  But the Canucks won it.  Boo.

[Fisix]

23 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

Is there a limit to how many contracts you can retain on? Because we can retain salary like a boss. 

whoops, i misread the question.

[BombaysTripleDeke]

Vancouver looking to unload Boeser, Horvat and Garland by the deadline. Looks like a new entrant in the tankathon

[Gorbachav55]

34 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Vancouver looking to unload Boeser, Horvat and Garland by the deadline. Looks like a new entrant in the tankathon

They're a little bit late to the game and have the wrong coach for it (although I wouldn't be surprised if he gets unloaded as well).  I think it depends how early they unload those guys.  If they're traded in the next month, they can make a run.  But if those guys are kept until the deadline, I think they're going to be a bit too good to be real players in this thing.

I think there are five real contenders for this things.  The Ducks are obviously one.  The others:

• San Jose: they've got nothing going on and could potentially get worse by trading Karlsson who has almost single-handedly won them some games.
• Chicago: After a decent start, they've gone completely in the tank and have some decently performing talent to unload in the next few months.  They could get worse.
• Arizona: Terrible.  Just terrible.
• Philadelphia: They're the darkhorse here because they actually have some talent coming back.  They have the widest range of outcomes because of the Tortorella effect.  He might inspire them to some victories.  Or he might rub everyone the wrong way and create more dysfunction, resulting in a 14-game losing streak.

Columbus is also in the mix, but they play too hard and have a bit too much talent for me to believe they'll end up near the bottom.  I think they'll go on a winning streak or two at some point.

[Gorbachav55]

If I had to rank them, I'd say that at the end of the season, the lottery odds look like this:

1. Arizona
2. Chicago
3. Anaheim
4. San Jose
5. Philly

If San Jose trades Karlsson in the next month, I could see them flipping with the Ducks.

[Fisix]

8 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:

If I had to rank them, I'd say that at the end of the season, the lottery odds look like this:

1. Arizona
2. Chicago
3. Anaheim
4. San Jose
5. Philly

If San Jose trades Karlsson in the next month, I could see them flipping with the Ducks.

lol.  i really don't know why you don't have Anaheim in #1.

[Jasoaks]

10 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:

If I had to rank them, I'd say that at the end of the season, the lottery odds look like this:

1. Arizona
2. Chicago
3. Anaheim
4. San Jose
5. Philly

If San Jose trades Karlsson in the next month, I could see them flipping with the Ducks.

Yep, EK is keeping SJ from being truly in the hunt...I hope they never trade him lol

I'm actually SHOCKED Arizona is ahead of us right now...I thought we'd be ahead of them...but then Silfv went ahead and shot an actual shot against Gibson in a real game and scored...lol...so...

At the beginning of the season I had us at 4th from last ahead of Arizona, Chicago, and SJ....this makes me sad right now as I really have grown excited for one of the top 4 lol

Edited December 6, 2022 by Jasoaks

[tommer-1]

46 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:

They're a little bit late to the game and have the wrong coach for it (although I wouldn't be surprised if he gets unloaded as well).  I think it depends how early they unload those guys.  If they're traded in the next month, they can make a run.  But if those guys are kept until the deadline, I think they're going to be a bit too good to be real players in this thing.

I think there are five real contenders for this things.  The Ducks are obviously one.  The others:

• San Jose: they've got nothing going on and could potentially get worse by trading Karlsson who has almost single-handedly won them some games.
• Chicago: After a decent start, they've gone completely in the tank and have some decently performing talent to unload in the next few months.  They could get worse.
• Arizona: Terrible.  Just terrible.
• Philadelphia: They're the darkhorse here because they actually have some talent coming back.  They have the widest range of outcomes because of the Tortorella effect.  He might inspire them to some victories.  Or he might rub everyone the wrong way and create more dysfunction, resulting in a 14-game losing streak.

Columbus is also in the mix, but they play too hard and have a bit too much talent for me to believe they'll end up near the bottom.  I think they'll go on a winning streak or two at some point.

ARZ and CLB have 3 points and three games in hand on the Ducks.  I don't see the Ducks catching them.

SJS has 5 points on the Ducks, but the Ducks have 2 games in hand.  Close.

CHI has three points on the Ducks, and two games in hand. Solid lead.

PHI has played the same amount of games as the Ducks, but have an 8-point lead.  No way the Ducks are catching them.

VAN has played the same amount of games and has a 10-point lead over the Ducks. Mission: Impossible.

 

This is the Ducks' season, for sure...

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by tommer-1