The Tankathon Thread

[tommer-1]

33 minutes ago, Fisix said:

lol.  i really don't know why you don't have Anaheim in #1.

They are the clear #1 Dehydrated Donkey Dungtiest team right now.  It's not even close.  Every analytic, eye test, standings position, statistical category.

They are crushing it...

[BombaysTripleDeke]

Not a good night for the tank: Chicago, Ottawa and Columbus all lost.

[Fisix]

12 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Not a good night for the tank: Chicago, Ottawa and Columbus all lost.

It’ll be fine. 

[Gorbachav55]

3 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Not a good night for the tank: Chicago, Ottawa and Columbus all lost.

Oof, yeah, that's a rough tankathon night.  When you're as bad as the Ducks are, one win jumps your points percentage by like 20%.  You start catching up quickly.

[DucksFan_08]

8 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Not a good night for the tank: Chicago, Ottawa and Columbus all lost.

We can't even tank well 😁

[BombaysTripleDeke]

11 hours ago, Fisix said:

It’ll be fine. 

It’s the Ducks, so I don’t bet against them in playing themselves out of the desired draft spots.

If Chicago gets Bedard, then there is no justice.

[Gorbachav55]

Sweet early 90s Senators!  What the heck is Columbus even doing? 

They're losing 6 - 0

...

in the FIRST PERIOD

...

AT HOME

...

TO BUFFALO!!!1!11!!!1!!

[Gorbachav55]

TAGE THOMPSON SCORED FOUR GOALS IN 12 MINUTES!

Forget what I said earlier about Columbus not being a contender in this.  This is going HARD for Bedard.

[Jasoaks]

26 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:

Sweet early 90s Senators!  What the heck is Columbus even doing? 

They're losing 6 - 0

...

in the FIRST PERIOD

...

AT HOME

...

TO BUFFALO!!!1!11!!!1!!

I think Buffalo has turned a corner (finally!). Thompson is KILLING it... Dahlin finally becoming the player so many thought he'd be.... Tuch, Krebs, Quinn, Power, Cozens...I don't know much about Luukkonen but if they can really shore up their goaltending....this team is going to be dangerous for a while

[BombaysTripleDeke]

Tage Thompson really helping to take the sting out of the O’Reilly trade.

[Gorbachav55]

Columbus and Arizona gave up a combined 17 goals tonight.  At least the Sharks managed to get a point, although they had the win until they gave up a power play goal with 3 minutes left.  Another bad night for the tank.

[Aksun]

17 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

It’s the Ducks, so I don’t bet against them in playing themselves out of the desired draft spots.

If Chicago gets Bedard, then there is no justice.

I know I'm in the wrong thread posting deliberate counter-topic, but I would be fine when the Ducks finish 10-ish points out of a playoff spot somewhere around .525.

NHL is still going to gift such a franchise player (Fantili, Bedard) to the teams they consider the most ailing: ARI and CHI. It's not a competition. It's rigged. Anaheim is not in the hunt either way. Zegras on the cover of the NHL videogame was our big prize. That's it. Hopefully the team has learned to hate losing and this will be imprinted in the minds of our young studs for years to come, now's the time to start winning and try to salvage the season.

[Jasoaks]

7 hours ago, Aksun said:

I know I'm in the wrong thread posting deliberate counter-topic, but I would be fine when the Ducks finish 10-ish points out of a playoff spot somewhere around .525.

NHL is still going to gift such a franchise player (Fantili, Bedard) to the teams they consider the most ailing: ARI and CHI. It's not a competition. It's rigged. Anaheim is not in the hunt either way. Zegras on the cover of the NHL videogame was our big prize. That's it. Hopefully the team has learned to hate losing and this will be imprinted in the minds of our young studs for years to come, now's the time to start winning and try to salvage the season.

i think this is a fine place to put this!

i do think the NHL wants Bedard to go to Arizona. I don't think they want Chicago to get any of the top 4...but Chicago will likely with how bad theyve been playing and likely to unload Kane/Toews at some point... but I don't think it's rigged. If it was Arizona would have gotten Matthews.

But this why I'm kinda hoping we don't raise above 2nd to last....2nd to last guarantees Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, or Carlsson...that's basically guaranteeing a player of #1OA value.

As a hockey fan, I want to see Arizona get a true franchise player. I hope they get Muchkov! He's not gonna be in the NHL for a few more seasons which fits PERFECTLY with them no longer being in a college arena lol

And I can live with Arizona getting Michkov if we are getting one of the other 3. Chicago getting Bedard though...even if we get Fantilli or Carlsson....is gonna leave a bad taste lol

[Jasoaks]

it is wild to me that right now calgary, washington, COLORADO, St. Louis....Minnesota....are all out of the playoffs and theoretically could win the lottery....

[Aksun]

7 hours ago, Jasoaks said:

it is wild to me that right now calgary, washington, COLORADO, St. Louis....Minnesota....are all out of the playoffs and theoretically could win the lottery....

Still a lot of hockey left in the regular season, I remember that Blues run from a few years back.

[Fisix]

15 hours ago, Jasoaks said:

it is wild to me that right now calgary, washington, COLORADO, St. Louis....Minnesota....are all out of the playoffs and theoretically could win the lottery....

colorado can't.  there's a restriction on cup teams and how low they can pick the next year, i believe.  i thought there was something else regarding playoff teams, but maybe not.  guess i'll have to look up the new rube-goldberg selection process again...

[Administrator]

Is there another level below us?

[Gorbachav55]

No, hell's about as low as you can go.  

Or at least that's what I thought until we lost to the Sharks 6-1.

In happier news, this was a pretty good night for the tank.  We lost in regulation to one of our tank rivals, plus Columbus and Arizona won (over Boston!), and Philly at least got a point.  Chicago losing at home to Winnipeg was the only thing keeping this from a tanktastic night.

[BombaysTripleDeke]

21 hours ago, Fisix said:

colorado can't.  there's a restriction on cup teams and how low they can pick the next year, i believe.  i thought there was something else regarding playoff teams, but maybe not.  guess i'll have to look up the new rube-goldberg selection process again...

Is there a restriction on the cup winner getting the first overall pick in the following year? We know there isn’t one for the finalist since Montreal won it this year after making the SCF.

With the new lottery rules, playoff teams still can’t win a slot, which got reduced from 3 to 2 and a team can’t move up more than 10 spots. So, only the bottom 11 teams have a chance at the first overall pick. So, if the 13th worst team won, they would get the third overall pick and everyone but the two worst teams would then drop down a spot. 

[Jasoaks]

On 12/10/2022 at 9:31 AM, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Is there a restriction on the cup winner getting the first overall pick in the following year? We know there isn’t one for the finalist since Montreal won it this year after making the SCF.

With the new lottery rules, playoff teams still can’t win a slot, which got reduced from 3 to 2 and a team can’t move up more than 10 spots. So, only the bottom 11 teams have a chance at the first overall pick. So, if the 13th worst team won, they would get the third overall pick and everyone but the two worst teams would then drop down a spot. 

Yeah, I hope there's some rule against the SC winner winning the lotto the following season...as the 13th worse team right now is Colorado lol....and them getting Carlsson or Michkov is just ridiculous....but anyway. I think there's also a rule about if you had won the lotto a certain amount of times recently.

[Belarus]

Short article from a year ago - to refresh our memories about the newest draft rules.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154

Food for thought.  The Stanley Cup champion would be ineligible for the lottery of course, but in theory they could make a blockbuster trade with the lottery winner for the first pick, however unlikely that would be.

[tommer-1]

38 minutes ago, Belarus said:

Short article from a year ago - to refresh our memories about the newest draft rules.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154

Food for thought.  The Stanley Cup champion would be ineligible for the lottery of course, but in theory they could make a blockbuster trade with the lottery winner for the first pick, however unlikely that would be.

They can have our first for Makar.

[Gorbachav55]

A good day for the tank! Columbus beat the Kings (always a good thing when the Kings lose) and Arizona beat Philly in OT, so both teams got a point with the greater threat to the Ducks getting two. Now we just need Chicago to pull their heads out long enough to rack up a few wins. 

[tommer-1]

Just so we are all clear:

 

The BEST odds for the Ducks - or any team that finishes dead last in the standings - is to pick 3rd OA.  Not first.  Not second.

Odds of picking 1st OA- 25.5%

Odds of picking 2nd OA - 18.8%

Odds of picking 3rd OA - 55.7%

 

Go ahead and run the Tankathon simulation, which is based off of those odds.  If you run it 10 times, the Ducks end up 3rd at least 5 times.

If you run it 100 times, they are gonna end up 3rd 55-56 times.

 

Finishing dead last gives you the best odds of picking first, compared to the field (25.5%).  Finishing second gives you a 13.5 % chance of picking first, finishing 3rd gives you a 9.5% of picking first.

 

And finishing last guarantees a Top 3 pick.  Like McTavish.

[tommer-1]

I just did it 50 times.

First 10

1st OA - 3

2nd OA - 3

3rd OA - 4

 

Second 10

1st OA - 5

2nd OA - 2

3rd OA - 3

 

Third 10

First OA - 0

2nd OA - 0

3rd OA - 10

 

Fourth 10

1st OA - 3

2nd OA - 1

3rd OA - 6

 

Fifth 10

1st OA - 2

2nd OA - 2

3rd OA - 6

 

Total (50)

1st OA - 13

2nd OA - 8

3rd OA - 29

[Gorbachav55]

Yep, seems about right.  Although picking 3OA in this draft still seems pretty good, considering.  

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Chicago is going to out-tank us, though.  They're heading straight down, and are grabbing heavy objects on the way to increase their rate of fall.

[Gorbachav55]

If the Ducks end up with the 3OA pick in the draft, do they send that pick plus a 2nd rounder and their 1st rounder in 2024 to try to move up to #1OA?  Is Bedard worth that jump?  And do you think there's any chance the team at the top takes that deal? 

With the doldrums this franchise is going through, I think they need that boost.  And the chemistry between Bedard and McTavish could be spectacular for years to come.  I would do it.

[Jasoaks]

2 hours ago, Gorbachav55 said:

If the Ducks end up with the 3OA pick in the draft, do they send that pick plus a 2nd rounder and their 1st rounder in 2024 to try to move up to #1OA?  Is Bedard worth that jump?  And do you think there's any chance the team at the top takes that deal? 

With the doldrums this franchise is going through, I think they need that boost.  And the chemistry between Bedard and McTavish could be spectacular for years to come.  I would do it.

I would absolutely do it....but I don't think there is anyway we move up to #1OA without dealing McT or Z. And in that case, I wouldn't do it. I would see whoever has that top pick as feeling Bedard is worth more than just magic beans. They need a young, promising star who is already proven somewhat in the NHL.

I feel that's always been our "issue" with any trade potentials for young, elite players with NHL experience (or superstar potential)...the conversation wont get far 'cause there's no way the other team wont want Z or McT or Drysdale.

[Gorbachav55]

Another poor night for the tank, outside of Anaheim's loss.  Chicago is keeping pace and looking almost as bad while doing it.  One team was bound to lose the San Jose-Arizona "hockey" game, but it would have been nice if it had gone to OT - it did not.  Philadelphia lost in regulation.

One thing I will say, though, it's nice to see the Kings' defense look worse than the Ducks.  I know Buffalo is hot, but watching the highlights of that game - Doughty looks pretty cooked, at least defensively.

[Gorbachav55]

Even with the Ducks win and Chicago's loss, the Ducks are still behind in points percentage. Philly won today as well, so that's good. Columbus lost, which is bad.