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dtsdlaw

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Everything posted by dtsdlaw

  1. dtsdlaw
    Oliver Wahlstrom was an 11th overall pick and he just signed his QO for less than his ELC cap hit a month ago. He also missed the last 47 games of the 2022-23 season with a knee injury. It's what happens when you're an RFA without arbitration rights and you get felled by a long term injury. This isn't new. Drysdale may be a former 6th overall pick, but he still missed 74 games last season with a major injury.
  2. dtsdlaw
    I thought it was obvious by now that Verbeek doesn't multi-task. He's clearly been looking around the league at available RHDs for the past two weeks, and now that he's locked down his placeholder, he can give Pat Brisson a call to start discussing Zegras' extension. Drysdale's agent will get Verbeek's phone call sometime in mid-September after Zegras is finally signed.
  3. dtsdlaw
    That exact situation happened with Isac Lundestrom. He signed his 1-year QO in August 2021, which was for less than what he was making the previous season in salary + bonuses. Same thing happened to Ryan McLeod last summer in Edmonton. It happens more often than you think around the league.
  4. dtsdlaw
    Is there be a softer top-pair in the entire NHL than Fowler-Drysdale? [sigh]
  5. dtsdlaw
    To the bolded, are you suggesting that Drysdale won't play his best unless he's making more $$? I think that's an insult to Drysdale, honestly. I expect him to play his tail off next season whether he's on a 1-year or 2-year deal or something longer. This isn't anything like the Zegras situation. Drysdale still has a lot to prove about being a legit top-4 D-man at the NHL level. I don't think he's in a position to not give 100% on the PP either - not with LaCombe, Zellweger, Minyukov, and Luneau working their way through the Ducks system. He's already at risk of being relegated to the 2nd PP unit with all of those colts in the stables. And frankly its only due to sheer dumb luck that he is even negotiating an RFA contract right now. If the OHL hadn't canceled its 2020-21 season due to covid, Drysdale would have spent the entire season in Erie and his ELC would have slid for a year (or two). Instead, the Otters didn't play a single game and he got to go to the Gulls and eventually the Ducks for a handful of games straight out of the draft. He made roughly $450-$500K that season when he otherwise would have been earning nothing in juniors, so he's already deeper into the Samuelis' pocket book than he would have been at this stage of his career solely due to the pandemic. I'm sure he and his agent know this too. And that doesn't even account for the $925K he made for playing just 8 games last season. If I'm in Ducks management, I also can't justify forking over a contract any bigger than the rules require to an under-sized 21-year-old defensemen who just missed 74 games with a major shoulder injury. I like Drysdale and his potential, but Adam Fox or Cale Makar he is not. He's nowhere near being a "sure thing" yet that would justify locking him up. And a lot of players really struggle with their shot when they've first come back from a major surgery on their shoulder labrum (remember Vatanen in 2017?), so I think it's going to be up to Drysdale to show that he's healthy and effective before the organization should have to really open the purse strings for him.
  6. dtsdlaw
    If I’m Verbeek, I’m sticking to my qualifying offer. Drysdale isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and he’s two seasons away from being arbitration eligible, so Verbeek has all of the leverage. Drysdale also needs to show that he’s healthy, durable, and fits into both Cronin’s system and Verbeek’s long term plans before he gets any kind of significant term. 1 x $875K, take it or leave it. Drysdale can’t afford to leave it after missing most if last season.
  7. dtsdlaw
    On the bright side, I’m sure many fans will be relieved that this move pretty much nails the coffin shut on any chance of Tyler Myers becoming a Duck on September 1st!
  8. dtsdlaw
    An idea that was clearly ahead of it’s time….
  9. dtsdlaw
    Another impressive Killorn stat - the guy has missed a total of 4 regular season games over the last 8 seasons. What makes that stat even more remarkable is that Tampa has played deep into the playoffs in many of those years, so Killorn has played an additional 110 playoff games over that same stretch. He's actually played more regular season + playoff games than anyone in the league over that 8-year time period. Killorn is either extremely lucky, or he's an absolute warrior. I'm betting on the latter.
  10. dtsdlaw
    Are you expecting him to play with lesser line mates in Anaheim? At $6.25M, I’d expect him to be on our top line with guys like Zegras and Terry. Killorn mostly played with Hagel and Cirelli during the last playoffs and he was mostly with Stamkos and Paul during the regular season. I don’t really see Zegras and Terry as a significant step down in linemate quality, do you?
  11. dtsdlaw
    45-55 points for the next two seasons. 35-45pts in season 3. 30-35pts in season 4.
  12. dtsdlaw
    Here's the way I look at it - by age 37, I think the odds are pretty darn high that Killorn is still effective in a 3rd or 4th line role just given the way he plays the game. Is it ideal to have a 37-year-old $6.25M cap hit on the 3rd/4th line? No. But does it hurt the team's overall cap structure? Also no, because I think we should expect to have anywhere between 2-4 ELCs in the starting lineup that will offset the massive overpayment to Killorn in the final year of his contract. Carlsson, Gaucher, Zellweger, Mintyukov, and Warren (and Luneau if he signs soon) are all eligible to slide a year of their ELCs this next season, and I think the odds are are prety good we see most of those guys in Anaheim in some capacity by the 2026-27 season. And who knows, maybe we'll finally hit on a forward drafted outside of the top-10 like Terrance, Myatovic, or Sidorov. Plus, there's a solid chance we'll be drafting a winger in the top-10 of the 2024 draft who could be with the big club by 2026-27. So overall, the Ducks cap outlook for the next four seasons looks pretty rosy, even with the overpayment to Killorn and the massive contracts that we expect Zegras, McTavish, and eventually Carlsson to get. It may get a little tight by 2027-28 when all of these ELCs start to expire, but Killorn's contract will be gone by then, as will Gibson's and Strome's contracts. So Killorn's overpayment is definitely a gamble that was worth it given our cap outlook.
  13. dtsdlaw
    I see benefits to both approaches. For example, if Zegras gets a bridge, then it makes it that much easier to bridge McTavish and/or Carlsson if that's needed later on. Looking at McTavish in particular, his first RFA contract is due when Strome and Killorn both have two years left on their deals ($11.25M total AAV between them). If you can get McTavish to do a 2-year bridge as well, then he's looking at signing his max 8-year contract at age 24 (which takes him through age 32) during the same summer that a 37-year-old Killorn and 34-year-old Strome come off the books (plus Gibson's $6.4M, if he's still here). Regardless of how it shakes out though, the Ducks are in great shape respective to the cap. I think we're a long, long way off from having any cap trouble. So for us fans, the only concern is whether the owners actually want to spend anywhere near the cap to put a decent team on the ice. Unfortunately, the answer to that question seems to be a resounding "N-O" for 2023-24 so far.
  14. dtsdlaw
    If he bridges, I think his AAV will likely be below $7M for the next 2-3 seasons. He could end up with something like PLD's 2-year bridge that was a 2-year, $10M contract. (same agent, btw).
  15. dtsdlaw
    And Chicago is the only team with the actual cap space for a contract in that range. Would Chicago give the Ducks 2 firsts, a second, and a third for Zegras? Not likely since they're still going to be a bottom-5 team next season. And that's also a pretty dangerous game to be playing for a rebuilding team that will have so many of their own young players that will need new contracts in the next 3 years.
  16. dtsdlaw
    He probably didn't want to be too far away from his family while playing for the worst team in the league that is just now entering a rebuild. Maybe it's different if he's being moved to a team that is trying to exit a rebuild?
  17. dtsdlaw
    Lindstrom was a 38th OA in 2017 who has 3G/23A in 128 NHL games. In other words, he's a contract dump. That's not equivalent value to LaCombe, Luneau, or Warren. He's not even Max Jones. He's basically Brett Leason.
  18. dtsdlaw
    Welp, Petry goes to Detroit for Lindstrom + 4th, with Montreal retaining half of his cap hit.
  19. dtsdlaw
    Putting some more thought into this and looking around the league at various cap situations, I wonder if a better option than McGinn in the top-9 lies in Ottawa. The Sens currently have only $896K in cap space and Shane Pinto and Egor Sokolov are both sitting there as pending RFAs, and there's no way they'll be able to sign both of those guys (esp. Pinto) unless they clear some salary. If Batherson is somehow wrapped up in the Canada WJC legal troubles and gets suspended long-term, then that's their answer. But otherwise, it sure looks like they need to trade either Kubalik or Joseph (or both) to finish signing their RFAs. Both of those guys would be interesting to me. Joseph was no good last season, but he saw some time on a line with Killorn and Stamkos in Tampa and was pretty effective before he was traded to Ottawa for Nick Paul, so maybe there'd be a fit in Anaheim with Killorn and Joseph on the flanks of a middle-6 line. And Kubalik is a pretty decent scorer, which we certainly need more of. I'd have to think that both guys would be available for very cheap (or perhaps even with a sweetener) considering how cap-strapped the Sens are. Alternatively, Sokolov (6'3", 220lbs) sure looks like he's got great potential to be a solid late-blooming power forward. I'd love for Verbeek to relieve Dorion of the burden of having to re-sign him. He'd be better than pretty much every winger prospect we have in the system right now, and he sure looks like he's very close to being a full-time NHLer.
  20. dtsdlaw
    Agree, but McTavish also had unique circumstances in that he only played a grand total of 24 hockey games in 2020-21 due to covid. Given his physical maturity, I can't help but wonder if McTavish sticks in the NHL for the 2021-22 season if he'd played 60+ games in the OHL during his draft year and put up ~100 points.
  21. dtsdlaw
    I agreed with everything here up until the bolded. The #1 priority is to get his development RIGHT. If he's ready from day 1, awesome! But if it takes easing him in for the proper development to happen, so be it. We drafted him #2OA so that five seasons from now he'll be a legit #1C, not next season or even the one after that. Draisaitl, Barkov, Eichel, Beniers, Stutzle, and Seguin all didn't storm the castle in their D+1 seasons. I'm fine if Verbeek takes the same approach with Carlsson.
  22. dtsdlaw
    What's wrong with letting him play a bit fewer minutes in a more managed role? I mean, if we're playing the Kings and he's on the 3rd line, you're still talking about him facing a 2nd line of Fiala - Dubois - Kaliyev or a 3rd line of Moore - Danault - Arvidsson. 2nd and 3rd lines around the NHL are not exactly filled with scrubs. What makes you think he won't learn how to do his job playing against 2nd/3rd line talent as an 18-year-old rookie rather than being thrown in against McDavid, MacKinnon, Pettersson, and all of the top-pair D-men in the league? 82 games is also a grind, and his body is going to need to adapt to how difficult it is to play at such a high, intense level for that long. He played 57 games last season in the SHL (including playoffs). There's no comparison between 57 SHL games and 82 NHL games.
  23. dtsdlaw
    Do you think he's getting an offer sheet or will hold out? He'll sign in Anaheim. Maybe not for 8 years, but he'll sign. We'll have him for at least four more seasons. Hopefully more.
  24. dtsdlaw
    Very sad news.
  25. dtsdlaw
    I put him there because McGinn is basically a lock for 12 goals and he plays a solid 200' aggressive forechecking game, and there's really nobody else who should be playing that high on the current roster. Maybe Nesterenko shows up to camp bigger and stronger and ready for 3rd line duties, but that's a big unknown at the moment. And I like McGinn a lot better than Jones, who is really just a 4th line grinder with very little offensive ability and who also can't stay healthy. Fans keep wishing Jones will be something more than he is, but he's just not what they wish him to be. He's a 12th/13th forward who will really need to improve his PK ability to even stay in the league. I think it's 50/50 whether Verbeek even qualifies him at $1.5M next summer.
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