dtsdlaw

The Ducks currently have 40 contracts (out of 50 max), tied for the second fewest in the league with Chicago. We'll add two more contracts with Zegras and Drysdale, but still plenty of room to add. Alexander and Clang are also both only 21-years-old. Seems likely at least one will start with the ECHL affiliate in Tulsa.

Given Verbeek's comments the other day about not rushing the young D-men to the NHL, you gotta wonder if perhaps the plan is to start Dostal in San Diego too and have the future defense really get used to one another at the AHL level. Maybe the Gulls start with something like: Zellweger - Helleson Mintyukov - LaCombe Hinds - Carrick (Costantini) Dostal, Clang

Interestingly, with the addition of Petry, Montreal now has a bottleneck on the right side of their defense with Petry, Savard, Guhle, and Kovacevik (and Mailloux apparently getting close). There are already rumors popping up that Petry could be flipped with salary retention. Savard also has no trade protection and has 2 x $3.5M remaining on his contract. Montreal is also spending so much money on their non-playoff roster that you’d think they’d be under some pressure to shed salary. Any interest here? We still need a big, minute-munching top-4 RHD to play with Fowler IMO, so I’m not opposed to either Savard or Petry as a short term placeholder/ mentor until more kids are fully NHL ready.

lol. Never mind. Trade is done and Montreal was the 3rd team that got Petry.

Looking at Pittsburgh’s cap situation, it seems like they could acquire Karlsson with hardly any salary retention if they include Petry ($6.25M) and Granlund ($5M) in the trade. Granlund has no trade protection so he’s likely as good as gone. Petry has a 15-team NTC though, and he has reportedly said NO to going to San Jose. So that’s probably where the 3rd team is needed - i.e. not to retain Karlsson salary but to find a new home for Petry. I would think Anaheim would be on his NTC, but maybe he’d be interested in a potential top-pair role with Fowler on a team that should be better with a new coach and Gudas/Killorn in the mix? Petry (6’3”, 210lbs) is 35, had 31pts last season, and his remaining salary is $4.5M-$3M. If the Ducks are not on his NTC, and assuming we can’t get Dumba or find another D-man in a trade, any interest in Petry?

Any chance Verbeek is in the mix here? Would it make sense for him to be? Chicago makes more sense as a broker given the term left in Karlsson’s contract, but I’d like to believe that Verbeek will eventually utilize our cap space somehow.

Killorn - Zegras - Terry Vatrano - McTavish - Strome Henrique - Carlsson - Silfverberg Jones - [Carrick] - McGinn That wouldn't be such a terrible way to shepherd Carlsson into the NHL.

Can’t buy out an injured player. The World Championship was at the end of May, just before the first buyout window opened.

It says he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season, so he can’t go on LTIR if he’s medically cleared to play. And if Perry can be bought out, is Silf or anyone else really off limits?

Interesting timing on this Silfverberg blood clot story… drops just before the Ducks second buy out window opens. Coincidence?

Elliotte Freidman commented on a recent podcast that they don't typically consider career numbers during the arbitration process, only the 1-2 seasons immediately preceding the signing of the contract. So Barzal's career numbers don't matter, and neither would his draft status. He is listed as a center, but it's also been argued on this board that the center/winger distinction in contract value may be overblown, so maybe that matters or maybe it doesn't. But I would also point out that Barzal was moved to the wing when Horvat was acquired, so maybe it doesn't matter at all since he may not even be a center anymore. There's also a pretty decent discussion of the arbitration process over at the Athletic here: https://theathletic.com/3487717/2022/08/09/nhl-arbitration/ Some relevant passages for those that don't have access:

He's on record as saying that he grew up trying to emulate Patrick Kane's game. I don't see why Zegras couldn't be extremely effective playing on the wing just like Kane. Neither one of those guys like to play much defense either, and we certainly have a distinguished history of having elite wingers that don't play a lick of defense (Teemu, Pears) so he'd fit right in with our history.

Your position is nonsensical. The floor has to be supported by some kind of legitimate evidence, just as the ceiling does. If a party isn’t required to argue for their number, why doesn’t the team just put forth the $1.45M QO and the agent ask for eleventy bajillion dollars? Because That’s. Not. How. It. Works. You have to be able support your number to the arbitrator with realistic, legitimate evidence, or the whole process becomes a joke. Comps for $8M, there are plenty. Lots to choose from, but I’ll go with Barzal, who is from Terry’s draft class and is the same age and just signed for 8 x $9.15M. Barzal has a longer history of success and had a monster season 6 years ago, but he’s been at or below Terry’s most recent production for the past four seasons and Terry has been as good better than him the past two seasons despite the massive difference in the quality of their respective teams. Barzal’s history of success can account for the $1.15M difference between his 8-year deal and Terry’s 1-year $8M arbitration ask, even though he hasn’t been as good as Terry lately. I personally think Terry is just as good or maybe even better than Barzal is now though (Barzal isn’t worth $9.15M btw). There are others too, but as you say, you can do your own research.

So to get your comps, you have to set the AAV to $5.25M (which would have actually been a more reasonable arbitration number) and also include no limits on the signing ages. If I re-set the limits to $4M-$4.75M AAV and a signing age under 30, I get three forwards who meet the criteria. Alex Tuch - signed a 7 x $4.75M contract on October 19, 2018 after posting 15G/22A in 78 games in his first full season of the NHL. Tyler Toffoli - signed a 4 x $4.25M contract on October 12, 2020 at age 28 following a 24G/20A season, and he hadn't even hit 50 points in the previous 4 seasons. Carter Verhaeghe - signed a 3 x $4.167 contract on July 28, 2021 following an 18G/18A covid-shortened season (only his second NHL season after 9G/4A in his first season) Sorry, but those aren't comps to a 26-year-old 2-time all-star who just led his team in PPG and TOI (forwards) the past two seasons.

AHL only deals. Costantini (6'1", 185lbs) is a right-shot D-man, so at least the Gulls now have one of those. He was also Mintyukov's teammates with the Ottawa 67s, although I can't find anything that says they ever played together as a pairing.

Show me a comp at or around $4.5M that supports this argument. Anywhere in the league. Cherry pick all you want. I'd love to see it. Terry has been an NHL all-star in back-to-back seasons and has led the team in points/game in both seasons. He also led all Anaheim forwards in E/S TOI and total TOI this past season. $4.5M would have made him the 7th or 8th highest player on the team (depending on where Zegras comes in). I challenge you (and tommer) to find one comp anywhere in the league that supports $4.5M. I bet you can't do it.

See my responses. These are also light years different than Verbeek devaluing Terry by saying thing like "Terry is weak on the forecheck" or "Terry doesn't display good enough leadership qualities that would earn him more money than Ryan Strome." Verbeek's position is much more direct about his views of Terry as a professional athlete. I don't agree with your opinion of how the arbitration works here. Verbeek doesn't go in trying to defend the number that he's hoping for ($6.1-%$6.5M according to you). He has to defend the $4.5M offer, or else he's seen as jerking around the arbitrator and the NHL's arbitration process. So I'm hung up on the $4.5M number because that's where Verbeek planted his flag and that's the number he would have had to defend in front of the arbitrator. I'm sure you'd say that Overhardt could be seen as jerking around the arbitrator too with the $8M ask, but I take the position that a 1 x $8M contract would be defensible in a hearing. There are enough comps out there to justify that ask. If I'm Overhardt, I'm pointing at Suzuki, Bratt, and a whole bunch of other guys who will be earning $8M+ in their age-26 season to justify a 1 x $8M contract for Terry in his age-26 season. I can't find a comp that justifies the 1 x $4.5M offer though. Can you?

A bridge is making more and more sense from Zegras' perspective IMO. Brayden Point (3 x $6.75M) and Matt Barzal (3 x $7M) both bridged at about the same age as Zegras (23), and then cashed in big time later. So he could certainly end up right around the same AAV as Terry if he wants to bet on himself.

$7M is hardly the middle between $4.5M and $8M, and it's definitely not $1.5M apart. And what would the player/agent end up saying in an arbitration hearing that shouldn't be said? My impression is that the player/agent talk about how wonderful the player is, and then team tries to argue he's not wonderful. So the danger of saying something that should remain unsaid is almost exclusively on the GM, not the player/agent. I suppose the player/agent could also rip the coaching for any deficiencies in his production, but Verbeek kicked that guy to the curb anyway so what's the danger there? I personally think Verbeek overplayed his hand with that lowball $4.5M arbitration offer, and that he probably ended up having to give up a bit more to avoid looking like a jackass in the arbitration hearing. I can't help but wonder if he got any calls from Yzerman or Poile or any other "mentors" telling him how stupid the $4.5M offer looked to everyone else around the league.

The Rico and Silf contracts both pre-date Solomon's arrival in Anaheim, so I don't think that's it.

Should never have gotten to this point though. We've been talking on this board for months about this being approximately the contract that Terry should get. How did this not get done sooner? Especially before the $4.5M lowball offer came out. IMO this still just makes Verbeek look really bad.

Assuming Capfriendly's tweet is correct, I find it interesting that Verbeek isn't doing anything creative with the year-to-year salary structure. Most teams are building in signing bonuses or some kind of progressive/regressive salary structure over the life of the contract, but as far as I can tell Verbeek's contracts have all been straight salary with no variation year-to-year. I wonder if that's a Veerbeek thing, or if that directive has come from higher up. Rico and Silf both signed contracts like that (flat salary, no signing bonuses) while xGMBM was here, but most everyone else was signing contracts that varied substantially year-to-year in the actual salary paid to the player.

Eric Stephens just posted at the Athletic that its a $7M AAV. His quote: "Breaking: Ducks and Troy Terry have reached agreement on a seven-year deal worth $7 million AAV, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations that doesn't have authorization to announce the contract."

Now give him the "C"