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dtsdlaw

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Everything posted by dtsdlaw

  1. dtsdlaw
    This is crazy talk. Matthew Tkachuk got 8 x $9.5M last summer after a 104 point season. Zegras hasn’t scored more than 65 points. He’s not sniffing $9M. No chance.
  2. dtsdlaw
    This made me lol. Well done. If not Tarasenko, then what about Kane to NYR? We could sign him, and then acquire Laf for a 3rd + "future consideration", with the future considerations being trading Kane to the Rangers when he's recovered from his hip surgery. Not that I want Kaner on this team ever, but if we have to cope with Pears in Chicago for 3/4 of a season, then maybe Chigacoans should have to watch Kaner in a Ducks sweater for a few games too. I could also see Tarasenko or Dumba on a 1-year retained salary as a piece going to Toronto in a Nylander sign-and-trade. Or maybe to Florida in a Reinhart sign-and-trade. All pie in the sky, I know. But it's July 25th and we still need another NHL-caliber top-6 winger, so any and all ideas should be welcome..
  3. dtsdlaw
    Perhaps, but I don't see a significant difference between that and acting as a broker for the TDL. Both are blatant cap manipulations. If they allow one, they should allow the other.
  4. dtsdlaw
    So I was just thinking, we all know that teams can be brokers at the trade deadline, but is there anything that says you can't be a broker before the season starts? Like, just for the sake of an example, let's say Verbeek really wanted to get Lafreniere from New York but didn't want to offer sheet him or give up the assets Drury wants. I wonder if he could just sign Tarasenko to a 1-year contract with the understanding that he would be immediately flipped to New York at 1/2 retained in a deal for Lafreniere. Anyone know if there is a rule against this? Assuming there's not, it seems like if Verbeek really wanted to play some 4D chess to improve the team, this would be an interesting avenue to explore this season since so many guys have signed 1-year deals with the expectation that the cap will go up next summer.
  5. dtsdlaw
    Depends on where they trade him. Anaheim, Chicago, Arizona, Nashville, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Buffalo can all add him without hitting the cap ceiling, so they wouldn't need to send any money back at all. That said, I would assume that Toronto would want to add another RW to take Nylander's place, so you're right that trading Nylander won't just open up $6.96M in cap space for them.
  6. dtsdlaw
    Sorry to burst your bubble, but they have too many good players to go in the tank and they're still a very desirable destination for UFAs. Watch Elias Lindholm or Mark Scheifele sign there next summer to be their 1C.
  7. dtsdlaw
    Yep, I'm gonna trust the accountant on this one. Murray has to be healthy to be bought out, but not to be waived and sent to the minors. He was also on the bench as their backup goalie for their elimination game against Florida, so he's arguably healthy. And that's basically correct on the buy out window, although technically the rule says that they get a 48-hour window that starts 3 days after the settlement or arbitration award. So the buy out window doesn't actually start until I believe tomorrow.
  8. dtsdlaw
    I believe Capfriendly is counting 14 Fs. Robertson still counts even though he’s on IR. If Murray isn’t bought out, I would also expect him to be sent to the AHL. Putting him in the minors clears $1.15M as opposed to Woll’s $766K. It’s still going to be a challenge, but there is a path there.
  9. dtsdlaw
    Samsonov ask was $4.9M and team was at $2.4M. Arb award was $3.55M. Darn.
  10. dtsdlaw
    Kurashev’s ask was allegedly $2.65M and the team’s offer was $1.4M, so the arbitration award is definitely in favor of the player. Hopefully Samsonov’s arbitration award similarly favors the player, as I think that will push Verbeek to wrap things up sooner if he sees the arb awards consistently going against management.
  11. dtsdlaw
    It sounds like Kurashev and Samsonov both went through with their arbitration hearings without a settlement, and I wonder if the arbitrator awards in those cases will push the needle in one direction or another for Terry. We still have a week and a half before Terry's hearing date, so plenty of time to get something done. But I 100% agree that a player like Terry should never even get to this point, and it reflects poorly on the organization and Verbeek IMO. Also notable that Terry's agent is Kurt Overhardt, who is also Gibson's agent. It really makes me wonder what the relationship is like between Overhardt and Verbeek right now.
  12. dtsdlaw
    I actually think that Thompson's agent and the Sabres GM knew exactly what was going to happen, because most people who didn't know about the cap increase were losing their freaking minds when Thompson's contract was announced, claiming that the Sabres had to massively overpay him just to keep him.
  13. dtsdlaw
    So I just came across this tweet from May: Says that he wants to return to play for Brynas of the SHL after his current contract expires. Once Terry's contract is figured out, a second buy-out window will open for the Ducks, and I can't help but wonder if Silf will be making that trip home a bit sooner than he originally expected. A buy out would save the Ducks $1.75M and the ensuing cap hit would have zero noticeable impact on the Ducks cap for this season and next season. He's also being penciled in as a 3rd/4th line RW and maybe even a 13th forward on many line projections, and you have to wonder if maybe he'd rather wind down his career playing more meaningful minutes for his home club than sitting at/near the end of the bench of a mediocre NHL team.
  14. dtsdlaw
    I disagree with this. They both signed last summer when articles like this one were already projecting the cap to make massive jumps starting in 2024-25. We even discussed it on these boards when we were debating whether Lindholm should be traded or re-signed back in early 2022. They both signed knowing the cap was going to skyrocket. Edit: In case you hit a paywall:
  15. dtsdlaw
    I'm not opposed to that. If I were Verbeek, I'd have done 8 x $7.5M and handed him the "C" on the first day of free agency. I'm just arguing what I think Verbeek will get done after looking at a lot of comparables around the league. We're 12 days from his arbitration hearing, so it's time to start weighing how both sides will likely approach that hearing, and for every Jesper Bratt (8 x $7.875M) there's an Adrian Kempe (4 x $5.5M) to balance that out for an arbitrator. IMO, I think his AAV comes in a bit under Tage Thompson's $7.143M, and since you get the sense that Verbeek doesn't want to give out 7-8 year terms, six years seems about right to me for what GMPV is going to try to do. I would be happy to be wrong though.
  16. dtsdlaw
    19.3% was high, but Terry is a very good shooter and I think it would be totally reasonable to expect him to shoot in the range of 14%-17% or better for the next 5-6 years. However, he's just not a high volume shooter. If he's only taking 200 shots/season, even at 15% that's going to barely hit 30 goals. If he's going to be our top line RW, he needs to find a away to get to ~250 shots similar to what Adrian Kempe has done in LA.
  17. dtsdlaw
    Fiala has been a 1.04 point/game player the past two seasons. Terry has been a 0.88 point/game player the past two seasons. That's ~1M less in AAV and a year less in term right there. $6.75M AAV is nothing to sneeze at either. It's right on line with guys like Krieder, Reinhart, Landeskog, and Kyle Connor.
  18. dtsdlaw
    I assume you mean that he'd just take back-to-back arbitration decisions, not a bridge deal? There's no way Verbeek should offer him a bridge deal that takes him to UFA.
  19. dtsdlaw
    I think that's a tad high. I have him pegged for something in the 6 x $6.75M range.
  20. dtsdlaw
    Does Gibson have a cocaine problem I wasn’t aware of? C’mon, Kuznetsov is a little different story than Gibson. I betcha Verbeek could trade Gibson tomorrow if he’d eat 25% of his contract. Gibson at $4.8M has a trade market. Gibson at $6.4M does not. He is still here only because Verbeek has so far been unwilling to retain any part of it.
  21. dtsdlaw
    Levi is listed as being 6'0", 184lbs. If he makes it in the NHL as a former 7th round pick, especially at his size, that'll be a cool story. However, I personally prefer bigger goalies who fill more of the net. I've also seen enough "amazing prospects" not end up working out (recently Jack Campbell, Spencer Knight) that I wouldn't trade much of value for him at age 21 and with only 7 professional starts under his belt (with just a .905 SV% in those starts).
  22. dtsdlaw
    Gibson doesn't want to be in Anaheim anymore. It's a situation that needs to be remedied as soon as possible. Just like Buffalo with Eichel, Reinhart, and Ristolainen, we need to move out all of the players that don't want to be part of the rebuild and commit to the players who do. Only then will this team's fortunes begin to turn around. However, if you want to be like Buffalo circa 2014-2021, by all means keep trotting out Gibson so he can show he's a $6.4M goalie again (spoiler alert: he won't).
  23. dtsdlaw
    Different trajectories now, I think. Seems like we were 1-2 years behind them last summer, but since they have gotten almost nothing out of their high draft picks, they have now gone all-in on trying for one more short Cup window with Kopitar and Doughty. Given how amazing our group of under-22s looks, I don't expect Verbeek to follow the Kings formula for getting back into contention.
  24. dtsdlaw
    I have bad news for you, and I'm sorry to be the one to have to tell you this, but.... we're not making the playoffs WITH John Gibson next season. Dude has had a .899, .904, .903, and .904 SV% the past four seasons. He's not going to suddenly post a .925 SV% next season and lead us to the playoffs. And honestly, you're a fool if you think starting Dostal for 55-65 games next season as a #1 is a good idea. That's a horrible idea. He needs to develop, not drown under a massive workload that he's not ready for. The way I see it, 2023-24 is going to be a developmental season the same way that 2022-23 was a developmental season for Ottawa and Buffalo. Ottawa's goalies last season were Cam Talbot, Anton Forsberg, and Mads Sogaard. Buffalo's goalies were Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Mike Comrie, Devin Levi, and a 41-year-old Craig Anderson. Both finished over .500 in pts %.
  25. dtsdlaw
    Welcome, Docj08! I think your read on it makes as much sense as any other explanation. The key is really just what Verbeek plans to do with Gibson, which at this point is just dependent on what other teams are willing to do with Gibson. If Verbeek can find a trade partner that fits what he wants, Gibson is as good as gone. I also don't think we'll necessarily have to wait for the TDL for that either. If his form is good and he is healthy and another team needs goaltending, why not trade him well before then? Seems like a lot of the best midseason goalie trades happen well before the TDL. With Dostal's 2-way contract in the first year, it also sure does feel like Verbeek will be adding a veteran. There are a handful still available and the best options would probably be Martin Jones, Alex Stalock, or Jaroslav Halak. Rumor has it that Halak is close to retirement but doesn't want to retire until he gets to 300 wins (he has 295 right now), so he'd be an interesting guy to bring in for the short term, esp. if Gibby stays all season long but Verbeek wants to get Dostal some NHL work too. There's also rumors about a few other netminders becoming available too. I've seen rumors that Seattle wants to trade Driedger (1 year left at $3.5M AAV, $4.5M salary) and also that Toronto may take advantage of the second buy-out window (triggered by Samsonov's arbitration case) to buy out Matt Murray. With regard to Murray, if he is bought out, then I would advocate for Verbeek to trade Gibson to Buffalo for Comrie + assets and then sign Murray to something like a 1 x $2M contract, and then even split the starts among Murray-Comrie-Dostal as his 3-headed monster this season. Murray is still a decent netminder when he's healthy, so if you limit him to ~30 games you could probably keep him upright and effective, while still getting Dostal a decent amount of NHL starts to further his development.
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