dtsdlaw

Today is Wednesday

No, but that’s a 1-2 x $7M player in today’s NHL. If Terry had come in at $8M and Verbeek had come in at $6M, and then the arbitrator had split the difference +/- $300K, we’re not even having this conversation. But $4.5M is just insulting for what Terry means to this team.

It’s been reported that he requested a trade before his breakout season when BM was still here. Not inconceivable that he could renew his request if he doesn’t feel valued by the new regime. Also, to anyone (not you, Gorb) assuming that the $4.5M offer is just designed to get an even split at the org’s preferred number, that’s now how arbitration really works. This case is much more likely to turn out like Shea Weber’s arbitration, where Weber’s ask was $8M and Poile was offering $4.75M. The arbitrator gave Weber $7.5M, and then the next summer Weber was targeted with a 14 x $7.875M offer sheet from Philly.

$8M is a lot closer to his value than $4.5M. You’re talking about 1-2 years of a 25-year-old Terry in his prime. His value for the next two seasons is north of $7M. I originally projected a 6-7 x $$6.75M, but that accounts for several 30+ seasons as well, which would bring the AAV down a bit. I’m so disgusted with Verbeek’s offer that I hope the arbitration punitively gives Terry $7.9999M. He’d actually be worth that cap hit next season.

Holy lowball offer, Batman!

Terry elected to go to arbitration so the team gets to decide whether it’ll be a 1- or 2-year deal. Terry does not get to choose. Terry also is two years away from UFA status, so if the team chooses 1 year, he’s not going to be a UFA when the contract ends. He’ll be in the same position next summer that DeBrincat was last summer when he was traded to Ottawa. One year away from UFA, arbitration eligible, and holding ALL of the leverage. Elliotte Friedman has been reporting the arbitration filings roughly 48 hours prior to the scheduled hearings, so if he does that for Terry too then we should know the numbers that Verbeek and Terry have submitted for arbitration by Monday afternoon (if there’s no settlement before then). I also think it’s pretty optimistic of you to think that this is all just for show. It’s not. This isn’t the kind of show anybody wants, and it actually makes Verbeek look pretty bad that he can’t re-sign the team’s best player, even with $27M in cap space to play with. I’m still hoping for a deal before Wednesday, but I don’t see any reason to be optimistic at this point that they’ll settle before the hearing.

Is it time to start freaking out about Terry’s looming arbitration date yet? IMO, if they make it to Tuesday without a settlement, that’ll be a massive fail for Verbeek.

I’ve read that Batherson is one of the guys that might get nailed in the WJC scandal. I wonder if they’ve been tipped about a possible suspension.

WTF? How are they fitting him in under their cap? Someone needs to offer sheet Shane Pinto immediately.

I'd certainly believe that Boston checked in on McTavish and Zegras, especially after we just drafted Carlsson to (hopefully) be a future 1C/2C. But why is that a problem? They probably called a LOT of teams when Bergeron announced his retirement. And Verbeek and Sweeney have already done a major trade (Hampus Lindholm) so there's a relationship there already and I'm sure it was easy for that inquiry to happen. Doesn't mean that Verbeek is going to make either guy available though.

Hagg's on a 1-way but Colton White is on a 2-way deal, so I'd assume that White would be the preferred guy to send down if/when another D-men is added. Only a $12.5K difference between their cap hits too.

I think you're 100% right that ownership isn't going to be on board with spending near the cap upper limit this season. The team SUCKED last season, and until we're at least .500 team I don't think we'll see the Samuelis agreeing to sign contracts that put the Ducks anywhere near the cap. But I also don't think Verbeek is done adding. Once Drysdale signs, there will be a total of 13 defensemen under contract in the entire organization, including 19-year-old Noah Warren who has to go back to juniors if he's not on the Big Club. That's not enough for the Ducks and Gulls, so Verbeek HAS to add more D-men from somewhere. It could be all guys on AHL-only contracts, but I think that's unlikely. More likely is that we will add 1-2 AHL-only contracts for the Gulls and then pick up a contract dump from some team that needs to shed $$. My expectations are low as to who that will be and what impact they will have on this team, but it seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. We just don't have enough bodies yet to even ice a full NHL and AHL defense.

What I wouldn't give for a Ducks beat writer who could actually provide some useful info as to what's going on with the Terry and Zegras negotiations. [sigh]

I don't actually believe that Zegras puts butts in seats either. Not long term anyway. I'm sure Anaheim got a bump early in the season from people interested in seeing the new guys, but the incessant losing keeps fans away regardless of who is on the ice. Zegras needs to turn this team into a winner in order to put continuously butts in seats. So is Zegras a winner? Not yet. And he has a long way to go to prove that he is. So the counting stats are really all that we have IMO. And nobody is going to offer sheet Zegras. I love the kid, but that's simply not going to happen.

Offer Sheets are almost always over market value. Many WAY over (see Kotkaniemi, Jesperi). Teams offer an overpayment to try to snake the player, and then the original team has to evaluate whether to match the overpayment. I would obviously match that... and then I'd retaliate against those dirty bastards.

That's basically a list of the best wingers in the NHL. If he is as good of a winger as those guys are, nobody will have an issue with paying him what's he worth. Even verbeek. Troy Terry might have something to say about this. I personally think he's currently a better player than Zegras. He's definitely better defensively, and its not close. Better at stick handling through traffic and better shooter too IMO. So far he seems to have better leadership skills too.

Does it impact the possibility of a bridge though? If he bridges with the expectation that he'll be paid as a 1C in 2-3 years time, but he ends up as a winger putting up Jesper Bratt type numbers, does he actually lose some money over the long haul?

Does this change if the organization views Zegras long-term as a winger? I mean, they have McTavish and they just drafted Carlsson, and the speculation from nearly everyone is that it will be Zegras who eventually slide to the wing, right? I dunno. I kind of see McTavish as being a 60-70pt ROR or Kesler type long term. I think he ends up in the mid-7s.

I'm also neither, but I think $8.2M is an overpayment based on the comps.

I keep seeing references to the rising cap being a factor in why he should be paid more than or the same as much better players like Hughes, but I just don't buy it. Before covid happened, the league was projecting the cap would be close to $90M by ~2024-25. Pretty much everyone who signed a contract before March 2020 had the expectation that the cap would be climbing by $1.5M-$2.5M season by season from $81.5M in the 2019-20 season, and since covid happened we've always known the cap was going to skyrocket once the league recovered it's lost revenue. So all of these 7- and 8-year contracts that were signed during the 3-year flat cap era, they still expected that the cap would be drastically higher for the majority of their contracts. So it's not really a game-changing surprise to anyone that the cap is going to jump over the next few seasons. It's been known for a long time. For some reason, all of the pre-covid prognostications about the cap have gone down the memory hole though, and we're treating the news of the rising cap like its some new breakthrough in science.

[Ring, Ring] Matt Murray: Hi Mr. Treliving, how are you today? Brad Treliving: Hi Matt. I'm fine. I was just wondering if you're healthy enough to play hockey? MM: Yes, I feel great! I'm golfing today and I can't wait to get back on the ice next month! BT: Well, if you're healthy, we're going to have to buy out the remaining year on your contract. It will cost you about $2.67M. MM: Oh.... well, I actually have a bit of a headache today. Not sure I'll be able to play this season after all. BT: That's what I was hoping you'd say. We'll go ahead and put you on LTIR for the season. Looks like you'll be the early favorite for the Masterton next season too. Enjoy your round! [click]

I think $8M is already bordering on an overpay. When Dylan Cozens (drafted 2 spots higher than Zegras in 2019) signed his 7 x $7.1M in February he had 17G/26A/43pts in 49 games so far that season for Buffalo. It was his first year of success after a 38-point season the year before, but he was already scoring at a higher rate than Zegras has in either of his full NHL seasons. So I think Cozens is a solid comparable (with some nuance, obviously).

8 x $8M. And even then, I'd be gritting my teeth. I love Zegras, but he's not as good as Jack Hughes. He's not as good as Stutzle. If he wants to be paid like those guys coming out of his ELC, then he should show that he's as good as those guys. And if he insists on making their money without being as good... well, Carlsson-McTavish looks like a pretty good 1C-2C combination to build around. This isn't the Mighty Zegrases of Anaheim. If he doesn't want to play in Anaheim long term for his market value, Verbeek has options.

Aho has multiple 80+ point seasons, a top-10 finish in the Hart voting, two top-15s for the Selke, and is the 1C on one of the best teams in the league. Zegras has none of those things and may or may not even be a center in the near future, let alone the 1C. I also think you’re underestimating the risk of a bridge. We just hired a defensive minded HC from the Islanders who has publicly stated that he’s committed to working on Zegras’ defensive game. You’re assuming Zegras goes the way of Hughes and Aho, but it’s just as likely that he goes the way of Barzal and lives in the 60-70 point territory under Cronin. And then there’s always the injury risk factor. An undersized, highly skilled forward who runs his mouth ALL THE TIME is going to be a bigger target as the team gets better. Right now, nobody outside of Arizona is taking runs at him because he plays for the worst team in the league. But if the Ducks are in the playoff hunt in the next 2-3 seasons, he’s going to have a huge target on his back.