dtsdlaw

It wasn't even a rumor. It was more like a musing, the likes of "I wonder if Terry's $7M will be the upper limit...". So there's not even a rumor that Verbeek said it. It's complete speculation on what Verbeek might think about the contract situations. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Zegras got a bridge deal with an AAV at or lower than $7M. Maybe something like Barzal's 3-year bridge?

The most prominent example I can find of a CHLer being drafted, going unsigned, and then being drafted again is Jarret Stoll. He was drafted by Calgary 46th overall in 2000 but didn't sign with them, so they traded his rights to Toronto, who also couldn't sign him. He then re-entered the draft in 2002 and was drafted ten spots higher at 36th overall. Stoll ended up being a pretty good player with Edmonton and LA. With Luneau, I'm wondering if this might have anything to do with his signing age and whether the first year of his ELC would slide if he signed before age 20. Anyone know the exact rule on that?

Beaulieu, Harrington, Kulikov, and Benoit... only Kulikov is an actual NHL-caliber defenseman from that group, and I thought he was fine in his role last season. The other three aren't really NHL-caliber D-men, so it doesn't really matter if they have sandpaper or not. They shouldn't have been in the lineup anyway, so your argument about them isn't really relevant IMO. Gudas is also 33-years-old and he's only 6'0" 205lbs. If he's the one and only guy you're relying on to bring a physical presence to your defense, you're not building a roster correctly. We don't need five more like him in the starting six, but we need one more. Lyubushkin isn't an ideal choice, but he works for me until Helleson can contribute more toughness to the defense. Lyubushkin will be moved at the deadline anyway, so we should see more of Helleson by then too. And I don't know if you've actually seen Helleson play much with the Gulls, but I have. I like him a lot and have posted here repeatedly about how much I like him. But I haven't seen that he's physically ready to deal with grinding 3rd and 4th line NHL forwards. I'd like to see him toughen up a bit or he's going to get run over and pushed around. He's not Nick Lidstrom. He's going to have to body up on a lot of these guys and not just try to stick check them to have success in the NHL.

If Helleson was actually comparable to any of those guys, he'd already be in the NHL. He's not. His ceiling is as a 4-5 SAH D-man. And every single one of those guys you mentioned have 4-5 SAH D-men in their group that handle the rough stuff for them. You can't ice a team full of soft players, or else you get what we all experienced last season. For someone who moans about how bad this team is all the time, you sure seem to be rooting for the Ducks to be Charmin soft again. btw, Hedman and Josi are both A-holes on the ice. They don't fight, but they are no stranger to the physical/dirty side of the game.

Well, Jultz attended everything too, right up until the meeting to sign his contract. So there's that....

Thanks for highlighting this. That's the first time I noticed it. What in the H-E-double hockey sticks is Verbeek doing not giving him trade protection in years 1-2??

Noah Warren will almost certainly be in Juniors next season. He's had quite a few significant injuries, including a shoulder injury in March of this year that he had surgery for (similar to Drysdale's, I think). The surgery supposedly has a 3-6 month recovery period so he may be ready for training camp, or maybe he won't. Regardless, he hasn't participated in the last two Ducks development camps due to injuries. He was also traded from Gatineau to Victoriaville in June, and you have to think that trade only happens if Victoriaville has some assurances that he's coming back to Juniors. So scratch Warren from your plan. For Helleson, I'm a big fan of his game. However, his skill set is primarily that he's got good length and vision and he is a great passer and good decision-maker. But even at his size (6'3", 205lbs), he's pretty soft. In the games I've seen him play in San Diego, he has mostly avoided scrums and rough stuff entirely. He's been credited with only one fight on Hockeyfights.com, and it was a psuedo-scrap where he basically got rag-dolled by a guy 2 inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter. So skill wise I think he is NHL ready, but he still needs to develop a lot more sandpaper to his game if he's going to thrive in the NHL. Also, if Helleson starts in Anaheim, who plays the right side in San Diego? And who gets the call to play the right side if one of Drysdale, Gudas, or Helleson gets hurt? I personally think it would be the right move to have Helleson continue to develop his "A-hole side" (he doesn't seem to have one yet) in San Diego to start the season and then get called up to the big club when the inevitable injuries come.

I don’t know of any prominent examples from the CHL off the top of my head (there are lower level players that go back into the draft from time to time), but we did get Freddy Anderson in the 2012 draft because he didn’t sign with Carolina after they drafted him. So it’s not unheard of. The Luneau situation is a bit scary because he’s been so good that he could end up as a top-15 pick if he went back into the 2024 draft. That could be a pretty big incentive for him to wait it out.

It's very weird. Luneau turns 20 in January, so it's not like he was drafted as an under-ager and needs to cook more before signing. Hopefully he's just angling for more bonus money via a good training camp.

I think he's valuable too. Very valuable. I've never once in this discussion suggested trading him. I'd just like to know what his true value is when healthy and playing for a coach other than Dallas Eakins before giving him a pricey contract. If Verbeek wants to go 1 x $1.25M or similar just because he's worried about hurting his wittle feewings, sure ok that's fine by me. I'd just prefer to see a highly motivated Drysdale balling out on a "show me" contract after missing all of last season with the injury.

Luneau is still unsigned and the Ducks lose his rights if he is not signed by June 1, 2024. Until Luneau is signed, I don't think you can even start to draw any conclusions about what the team's plans are for Drysdale. Drysdale, Luneau, Warren, and Moore are the only RHD prospects we really have, and only two of those guys really project to be quality top-4 PMDs.

His agent would presumably be trying to negotiate something other than his QO. Just because one party says "no" doesn't mean the other party isn't continuing to try to negotiate. Drysdale's major injury and complete lack of any kind of production last season is still the big thing for me. It's not old thinking, it's waiting to see if a guy is healed and ready to be a professional hockey player again before giving him a big contract. That's just smart business. I've been using Wahlstrom as an example, but a better example is probably Nolan Patrick. #2 overall pick in 2017. 13G/17A in 73 games in 2017-18. 13G/18A in 72 games the following season. He then missed the start of the 2019-20 season due to a migraine disorder and was set to return to action just when the season was canceled for covid in March 2020 (he'd started skating with the team in February), so he posted zero stats for 2019-20. Because he was shut-out in 2019-20, he then signed his QO for the 2020-21 season after he'd been medically cleared to play. See, this kind of stuff happens. Fisix thinks I'm being silly, but there's precedent there for when a highly regarded prospect gets seriously injured in the final year of his ELC. If you pay attention to the whole league and not just the Ducks, you'll know that this goes on. It's not personal and it doesn't say anything to the player about what the organization thinks of him. It's just business, and nobody needs to get their panties in a bunch about it. In the case of Patrick, it worked out well for the Flyers because he ended up being terrible in 2020-21 (which he blamed on poor conditioning due to his recovery from the migraine issue) and so they weren't on the hook for an inflated contract. Maybe the Ducks have more assurances that Drysdale is fine and will be back as good as new by the start of training camp, in which case they can pony up for a bigger contract this summer. Or maybe they don't have those assurances. The longer this goes without him signing, you have to wonder, right? We'll find out soon enough.

Maybe Verbeek is about to pull off that Colton White for Curtis Lazar swap that we've all been secretly pining away for, and so he needs another veteran LHD to keep him company in the press box for 73 games?

Usually I can see some kind of rationale for these moves, even if I totally disagree with the rationale. This one stumps me. Anyone?

C'mon. You guys must really think Drysdale is a whiney little spoiled brat. Is this a generational thing, where kids these days don't feel like they have to earn anything anymore and should just be handed stuff based on pedigree? If so, I don't like the direction the league is headed in. I guess I just have a higher opinion of Drysdale's mental fortitude and motivation to succeed than you guys do. Drysdale is only 21 years old and is negotiating his first RFA contract SOLELY because of the OHL shut down. He knows this. Him signing a QO wouldn't mean any of those things unless the coach and management also treats him as an afterthought throughout the season. If he signs his QO and then get first unit PP time (likely) and top-4 TOI (highly likely), literally none of these things would go through his head. And he'd then sign an even better contract next summer at age 22 (same age that Byrum just signed his new contract at) after a good season rather than after a horrible season like he had in 2022-23.

Verbeek still has a long way to go before this thread will fade away. A lot of "experts" are still picking the Ducks to finish bottom-3 in the NHL this coming season and based on the way our defense currently looks, I have a hard time disagreeing with them.

You're completely missing the forest for the trees by getting bogged down in who's a forward and who's a D-man and what their career stats are. The original point that I was responding to when I brought up Wahlstrom is that its reasonable for a highly regarded prospect to sign a QO after an injury riddled season. Wahlstrom is one example. An 11th overall pick, he's been consistently ranked as the Islanders top prospect since about 2020, and he's still tracking to be a good 2nd line winger with potential to play on the top line. His numbers last season before the knee injury bear that out (numbers very similar to Kyle Palmieri's statistical progression, btw). And yet, he just signed his QO after suffering a significant knee injury during his first RFA contract season. Do you honestly believe that if Wahlstrom had not been injured, and if he had maintained his pace of 16G/21A last season (or perhaps even improved on it as his game continued to mature), that he would have signed a QO this summer? No chance that would have happened. Wahlstrom ONLY signed his QO because of the injury. Which means that it could happen to Drysdale too, even as a highly regarded prospect. And does this mean I think Drysdale is the same quality of prospect as Wahlstrom? Nope. I don't see Drysdale becoming a stud like Adam Fox, Cale Makar, or Quinn Hughes, but in the long run I do hope Drysdale can be a decent #2 or a very good #3 defenseman for us. Basically a shorter version of Cam Fowler, which would be great. So yeah, you're right that Drysdale is a better prospect than Wahlstrom. But that still doesn't erase the fact that Drysdale had 0G/0A last season in his 8 games, that he's been absolutely caved in defensively since he came into the league, and that his career analytics are a dumpster fire. 2021-22 was a nice season of counting stats for a rookie D-man (especially at his age), and I get that players get paid mostly for points, but coming off a major shoulder surgery after missing 74 games, I just don't see any reason to pay him now. And I actually think it would work out better for him if he just signed his 1-year QO and then negotiated a better, longer contract next summer. I'd personally like to see a more confident Drysdale bet on himself with a "show-me" contract and then cash in after he puts up 40+ points in 2023-24.

22 months. Nice work on the math. And Wahlstrom was on pace for 16G/21A when he got hurt last season, which is right in line with what you'd hope to see from a 22-year-old winger with 2nd line potential. You must be appalled at what Max Jones is making if you think Wahlstrom is barely worth his QO. lol.

Why is the distinction relevant in this discussion? They're both skaters who were drafted in the top half of the first round. Both had significant injuries during the season prior to their ELCs expiring. And both are players that their respective teams hope will become high level contributors. I don't see why it matters that one's a forward and one's a defenseman. And in terms of direct, perfect comparables to Drysdale's situation, there are none. Primarily because of covid. Drysdale got to burn a year off of his ELC thanks to his juniors season being canceled. There's zero chance that he would have burned that first year if not for the OHL being shut down. And since that's never happened before to someone in their D+1 season, the only other players who he could be perfectly compared to Drysdale are the ones from his same draft class (2020). Of those, there were two D-men taken in the top-15 picks - Drysdale and Jake Sanderson. Sanderson went to U. North Dakota, where he played a partial season during 2020-21 and so the Sens got to slide his ELC, so he's not comparable. So if you're only going to search for perfect comparables, save yourself some time because there are zero perfect comparables to Drysdale's situation. And while I do love Drysdale and have high hopes for him long term, he was pretty bad defending his own zone during the 2021-22 season despite putting up some solid point totals. This isn't arbitration, so his fancy stats from 2021-22 are going to be a factor, and they were pretty darn bad. Lastly, the Ducks already did Drysdale a solid last season by keeping him on the Ducks roster. He was back skating in full gear at practices by mid-March and they easily could have assigned him to the Gulls (where his AHL salary would have been $80K instead of $832.5K) for conditioning if they really wanted to screw him out of money. But they kept him on the big club and continued to pay him NHL game checks despite him not returning to action. They're not trying to screw him out of money. But I just don't see any reason to pay him more than what's required at this point.

Agreed. Wahlstrom was actually useful and productive last season before he got hurt. Drysdale scored zero points in his 8 games and was a dumpster fire defensively during that stretch. He was solid and promising in 2021-22 (playing mostly with Hampus Lindholm, which shouldn’t be overlooked), but Drysdale’s 2022-23 is worth only a QO. The message to Drysdale should just be “show us you can play against NHLers without Hampus, and then we’ll pay you.”

I think the most likely scenario would be for Verbeek to add a winger like Mathieu Joseph - ie someone who can play up and down the lineup if Rico or Strome need to be moved to center full time, or if they want to help insulate a younger center (Groulx, Nesterenko, Gaucher) in a bottom-6 role. We’re not hurting for centers in the organization. It’s just that there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the depth centers we have. So I think it might make some sense to Verbeek to add a winger that brings more certainty in his support role. Aside from that possibility, I would think Verbeek will also be looking at veteran 4Cs. Someone that would really tick off Sexlaf…

I think the Lundestrom injury creates more uncertainty at the center position than we initially realized. Carlsson may not be ready for the NHL yet. Groulx may never be ready for the NHL. Carrick's NHL days may be behind him. Rico is expected to be traded eventually. Strome was very ineffective last season as a C. And there's always the fear of a sophomore slump for a guy like McTavish. As much as I don't love Lundy long term for this team, he would have provided some assurance this season, especially early on when we don't know what to expect from Carlsson. Without him, I could see Verbeek looking at picking up another depth C/W to start the season. Not sure who will be available yet, but there will likely be some veterans squeezed out by kids. Or maybe a Matheiu Perreault type, who just doesn't fit what a team is trying to do but who can still be effective in another system. Verbeek comes from the Yzerman school of you won't hear anything from me. Ever.

I'm not convinced Verbeek is done adding players. I think he has one more move in him. Trade or waivers, not sure. But I feel like there's one more coming.

They left out McGinn. He'll be in the starting lineup if he's healthy.

That's in all situations though. In an ideal world he's about 18:30/game at even strength, and I think that his E/S TOI gets divided up between different partners this season. He should be playing around 15-16 E/S minutes with Lyubushkin or perhaps Gudas, and then the remaining time with Drysdale or LaCombe when the team wants to press the offense. I also think part of the thinking in adding Gudas, Haag, and Lyubushkin this summer was to reduce Fowler's PK TOI, so that he's on the 2nd PK unit and not getting so beat up with too many minutes in our own D-zone. He is on the wrong side of 30 now, so they have to start thinking about how and when to use him eventually, right? Byrum had 10G/14A in 42 games last season. Drysdale had 0G/0A in 8 games last season. Is that the comparable we want to work with here?