tommer-1

Forsberg is 100% The Villain in this movie.

One thing is for sure happening so far leading up to the start of the season: Zegras, obviously, is not the face for anything Ducks. It's all Troy Terry. NHL Media tour in Vegas Angel/Ducks Night

He wouldn't have been on the ice for rookie development camp.

Sorry, I meant to bold where you said Sanderson "isn't worth that much money until next year". He's isn't getting paid that much money until next year. But he is 100% worth it, right now. At least the Sens think so. Otherwise I don't know why they would print that contract out for him to sign.

If Sanderson has 0 points after 8 games and then suffers a torn labrum to start this season, guess how much money he's gonna make.

I 100% get where you are coming from, I just don't like it and don't agree with it. If it was Colton White or Kevin Shattenkirk or Nathan Beaulieu or whomever, that would be one thing. But this is a guy that, ostensibly, you want on your blueline, producing, for 5-10 years. Otherwise you would not have drafted him 6th OA. Now, GMPV did not draft him, I get that, but Madden did. I would use leverage to get him at a good price. I would not use leverage to treat him like he basically doesn't have much value to you.

It was 4 months ago.

But if Sanderson is worth $8 mil x 8 years after one NHL season with the same stats as Drysdale, albeit better underlying stats and more responsibility, it's hard to say that Drysdale is worth 1/76th ($64,000,000.00 v. $875,000.00) of Jake Sanderson, even coming off shoulder surgery. At least, that would be my argument if I was representing Drysdale and GMPV gave me a take it or leave it offer of $875k for 1 season. That's quite an extrapolation.

Just the opposite. He was on that zoom call for the Ducks podcast or whatever about two months ago, training down in south Florida with McTavish, saying he felt good, going golfing. So, that doesn't sound to me like his shoulder is a problem.

You think that's the best they are offering him? Very well could be. 1 x $875,000

48 points in 76 games 49 points in 68 games 77 points in 80 games signed that deal mid-September of 2019, after the 77-point season Zegras only has 2 full seasons in, and in those first two seasons he has outpointed guys like M. Tkachuk, Aho, B. Tkachuk, Keller, Suzuki, Hischier, almost identical to Pettersson, in their first two seasons. He out-pointed Kyle Connor in their first three seasons and Connor signed a $7.14 mil 7 year deal. Three years ago None of those guys are making less than $7 mil - some are making $8 mil +, and those deals are years old. AND ALL of those guys have increased their point production after those first two seasons.

For who? GMPV? Of course. For Zegras? That seems undervalued. Here are three groups (in order). Guys making (AAV) $6.25 mil to $6.95 mil, guys making $7 to $7.75 mil, and guys making $7.8 mil to $8.5. Where do you think he fits? https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active?stats-season=2023&limits=caphit-6250000-6950000 https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active?stats-season=2023&limits=caphit-7100000-7750000 https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active?stats-season=2023&limits=caphit-7800000-8500000

Like Matthews? Or Aho?

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall, but we will most likely never know the details. Would Zegras really decline $72 mil ($9 mil x 8 years)? Seems unlikely. Probably has not been offered. Is GMPV offering 7 years at $7 mil? If he is, I don’t think I would blame Zegras if he said “No” to that. It does make me start to wonder if GMPV sees Zegras as more “EA Cover Boy” than integral part of a playoff team.

100% If they feel they have to bridge a guy or two for 3-5 years, use that for McTavish and/or Carlsson. I think both those guys will perform and need to be paid, but that’s a problem you want to have. At this point, they are looking at those three guys and Terry and that’s pretty much it. I think any other high-end talent at F in the next 3/5 years is coming via FA or trade.

So if they bridge him for, let's say for argument's sake 2 years at $7.5 mil (Aho got 5 years at $8.46 mil after two similar seasons and then a 30G, 53A season, and remember that was 4 years ago money and cap), and in those two years he does what Aho did in years 4 and 5 - 66 points in 68 games, 57 points in 56 games, so PPG pace - then what will his extension look like? I'm just unclear on what the endgame is with Zegras. Right now, it's obvious they are not ready to commit to him, unless he is being completely unrealistic and unmoving on his demands, which is definitely possible, or if he is very unsure of where they are going as a team. I can see both sides of the argument. I can see where they are not sure what type of player he will be. I can also see him not sure what kind of team they will be. Imo, they have MUCH more to prove to him than he does to them. He has plenty to improve upon, but I would think that you see him and his developing game as something you need to be a better team. But maybe not. A two to three year bridge is fine. As a fan, I'd much rather see either a 5-year bridge - like Aho, Matthews and others - or a 7 or 8-year deal. I know a 5-year deal takes him to UFA status, but maybe that is the sweet spot for everyone. You have him for 5 seasons, so you have time to get the team winning, he gets paid way better than a two or three-year deal, plus he has better stability and a chance to be free at the end. As long as the team is better and winning, and he's happy, then you try to do what TOR did with Matthews or CAR did with AHO, etc. Look at Keller's production on his ELC and what his 2nd contract looked like - signed 4 years ago. Kyle Connor, also 4 years ago. Nico Hischier, 4 years ago Cozens, last season. Zegras has out-produced Cozens in fewer games in their first three contract seasons. Nick Suzuki, 2 years ago Brady Tkachuk, 2 years ago

You should go back and read them, then. I was comparing them after their ELC’s. Aho just got his third contract. Compare their first two full seasons and let me know what you find out.

Why are you comparing Zegras’ second full NHL season to Aho’s seventh? Any particular reason?

If you just look at the money and slots in the lineup currently for Killorn, Henrique, Silfverberg, Strome, Vatrano, Fowler, Gudas, and Gibson and then see that none of those guys are likely to be on new contracts at the start of the 2027 season then you logically understand that they will be able to pay Terry, Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson on big price tags as well as 3 to 4 young Dmen that warrant it - Drysdale, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Luneau, Lacombe, Helleson, Warren And a goalie tandem at a total price tag of around $7 mil, maybe less.

In 5 years, if they have Terry at $7 mil and Zegras at $9 mil (for argument's sake) and NOBODY else - as of right now - signed to a contract, how will cap be an issue? If they can't deal with that they are in the wrong business. The only cap problems they would have would be self-inflicted, and it won't be because of the Terry or the Zegras contract, whatever they are. They will have to pay guys like Drysdale, Mintyukov, Zellweger - if they in fact are paying all three of them - and obviously Carlsson and McTavish, but that's your core. They will probably have 5-6 guys on either ELC's or league minimum, so all of those guys are only gonna cost $5-$6 mil total. I don't see how they could find their way to cap trouble in 5 years. Doesn't mean they won't, just means they did something wrong.

Yeah, if the plan is not to build around Zegras, Terry, McTavish, Carlsson, Drysdale, Mintyukov, Zellweger then I have no idea what they are doing. And neither do they.

But none of them are on the books. That's my only point. They are committed to exactly one guy at $7 mil in the summer of 2028. In three years they right now have about $56 mil in cap with 7 guys signed - Terry, Killorn, Strome, Carlsson, Fowler, Gudas, Gibson. So are they gonna be paying some guys other than Zegras and Terry? Absolutely. Will they have something like $75 mil to do that with? Also, yes.

I think (hope?) Cronin gets him to be more defensively responsible and more disciplined (not as many 2-minute sits). He's still gonna be on the top 2 lines and the top PP. He's still creative as hell. I don't think any coach could get him to be less offensively creative and able. He's got that, in spades. Being defensively responsible and spending less time in the box should actually help his offensive numbers. More puck possession. We'll see soon enough.

You know who the Ducks have on the books in 5 years? Troy Terry. That's it.

Well, that's a 5-year deal. And you can pay him in 5 years. Cap is not gonna be an issue. If he goes 30 G 50 A for the next 2-3 seasons, his ask/arbitration is gonna be $10 mil AAV. And, you hope he does go 30/50, along with that coinciding with team success. If I'm GMPV and I'm trying to turn this into a playoff team, I'd much rather have 5 years of Trevor Zegras than 2 or 3. I guess if you think he's only gonna be worth about $7 mil in 2-3 seasons you're fine with a short bridge. I think that is not likely, but life is all about choices.