tommer-1

If he plays out this contract he will have given them 12 seasons. Hard to expect much more than that, really. I don't think the Ducks are getting Zegras for 7-8 years on this next contract, because I think it would have happened. If they are gonna bridge him get 5 or 6 years out of him, not 2-3. At least that's how I would want to play it if I were GMPV.

Zegras just went 23 G 38 A, 23 G 42 A. Under Dallas Eakins. How likely do you think that for the next 4-5 years he's a 30 G, 52 A guy? Because, if you see that as a distinct possibility, $7.75 AAV is below market value. By a good margin. Aho got 5 years at $8.46 mil - off his ELC *ding ding ding* in 2019 (4 summers ago) for putting up : 24 G 29 A 29 G 36 A 30 G 53 A

When did I say pay him $11.6 mil for 5 years 4.5 years ago? I didn't.

He's not, except in contract structure. I'm talking about $2 mil plus less on AAV, 4.5 years later, with an increasing cap. Zegras is their #1 prospect, same as Matthews. There are some comparable things between the two, but I'm only talking about the contract structure coming out of an ELC and the status of the player in regards to the organization's future, not the NHL production between the two.

I also think he had another: Theodore. He traded Theodore so Vegas would draft Stoner, and not one of Manson or Vatanen. So, he basically traded Theodore for an NHL Dman (Manson or Vatanen, take your pick). Convoluted, granted, but he should have just let the chips fall. Having Fowler/Lindholm/Theodore as players/assets was a much better prospect than having Manson/Vatanen/Montour. Even at the time, if you had said you gotta lose one lefty or one righty I would have said "take a righty" 11 times outta 10.

I don't think that was the approach for Matthews, although they did buy one year of UFA for him - this season. I think they were paying him at about his market value - or what it would be over those 5 years - in 2019 when he signed that 5-year, $11.6 mil contract. It made him the highest paid Maple Leaf, and I think McDavid was at $12.5 mil, so I guess you could argue that his deal could have been about $400k AAV more, maybe? They weren't trying to get him cheap on an AAV, just "cheap" on total contract (ie. not $12 mil for 8 years). I think Zegras right now for 5 years at about $9.5 mil AAV would be similar to that. 5 years at $7.75 mil to me sounds like you just want him for 5 years and you don't care after that, and you are trying to get him undervalued for at least a couple of those years. 5 years around $9.5 mil sounds more like you want to give him two 5-year deals, more or less. It's a difference of $8.75 mil over the contract, but it might be money well spent if he performs and extends.

Just looking at their drafts from 2013-2017, who they still had and who they had moved from those 5 drafts, they should have seen the writing on the wall.

Of course, if they do that, and give Drysdale the Sanderson-Lite contract, then they'll have no cap space this season. 😂

So give him 5 years at $9.75 mil. Is he signing that? Jeez, I can't see him not. He's happy, he's getting paid, and he is not locked in long term, you're happy, because he's playing for you, hopefully producing, and not locked in long term. If things go great on both sides, your chances of extending him again are very good.

A 5-year deal would get him to UFA status, I believe. They could do that, and then hope to extend him the summer before it expires, same as what just transpired with Matthews. I actually like that structure, tbh. Get value from a kid on their ELC (like Matthews and Zegras), pay them handsomely for 5 years - which, depending on production can be market value, maybe a slight team value (again, like Matthews second deal), extend them on the third contract for another four-five years, hopefully at market value (again, like Matthews). It's tricky, mostly due to that second extension getting done, but you never overpay if the kid is what you think he is and you have him for 11-13 years of NHL productivity. And at the end of it they are 30 to 32 years old.

I think the failure was looking at everything they had and thinking that they could do a one or two year re-tool. That was a fantasy. They didn't have enough at the NHL level, and they didn't have enough at the development level. And they didn't have enough cap space to go on a spending spree. They convinced themselves of a false reality. OR they knew that, and thought they could just dog-paddle and stay in the mushy middle. I think they had been competitive and in the mix for so long - 15 years at that point (2003-2018) - that they felt they could continue. Maybe if you look at it those two options are really just the same thing. They should have hired some outside consultant with a hockey background to look at the thing from outside the organization and give an honest assessment. I think if they had they would have been told, "This is not sustainable. You need to get rid of money on current contracts, get young assets and picks for some current value players, be bad for 3 years or so and then start the climb." Doesn't mean they would have taken that person's advice, I guess, but, whatever. What's the old saying? "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still" I think they waited and added 3, maybe 4 years (hopefully not any more - we'll see this season) to that timeframe. I'm really hoping they are close to .500 this season. In other words, much better than the last few years. And then they can move up from there in following seasons. That will still be a bad season, though. No playoffs, and probably around a 8th-12th OA pick, which is a small consolation. But that would made 6 seasons of not rebuilding, but sucking. And it would be tough to go into 2024/25 facing 7 straight seasons of suckage.

Not for nothing, but those USNTDP kids from the 2020/21 WJC Gold Medal winners are getting PAID: Sanderson: $8.05 mil for 8 years Caufield: $7.85 mil for 8 years Boldy: $7 mil for 7 years Spencer Knight: $4.5 mil for 3 years Zegras: ??? Beniers: ??? Kaliyev: ??? Faber: ??? Helleson: ??? LaCombe: ??? The silver medal-winning Canadian squad is not looking too shabby, either.

Yeah, I can see that. Terry only had to give up one year of term (from 8 to 7), maybe 250k in AAV, and GMPV had to come up with an extra $1 mil in AAV and probably one or two years of term.

I think there are plenty. The Ducks had a serious lack of NHL talent at F. I think you keep Gibson, you keep Getzlaf, you keep one of Fowler or Lindholm, you keep one of Montour or Manson, and everybody else is up to possibly be dealt. Rakell, Henrique, Silfverberg, Cogliano, Kase, Kesler's contract for LTIR relief for another team, Perry, Steel, Jones, Grant, Comtois, one of Fowler/Lindholm, one of Manson/Montour. Again, not easy, probably not fun, but necessary. It just got delayed. It was always coming.

I'm not bagging on Zegras, or the draft selection. Just saying the rebuild should have started about 2 years before it seems it did. Too slow to pull the trigger. Or plug. Or whatever metaphor works best.

The Ducks had nobody anywhere near comparable to McDavid and/or Draisaitl in 2018/19. Still don't. Like, not even in the same Solar System.

I mean, here's 2018/19. What an abomination. https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points&page=0&pageSize=50 Got Zegras that summer, but missed on the chance to tank for Jack Hughes.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=timeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50 I think if you were a good GM with an honest take and a vision for the future you would look at these players, their games played (or not, as the case may be, like Kesler) and look at the stats, and evaluate how they just performed in the playoffs, and see that you need to make a lot of changes to stay competitive. Probably too many, with your cap situation. So you might think about selling ownership on a rebuild. Maybe not a complete explosion, but definitely moving some value pieces to get assets to try to be competitive by 2022. Also maybe think about the LTIR loophole for Kesler, instead of playing him 60 games the following season when he had no business playing hockey. I'm not saying it would have been an easy sell, but facing reality is not always easy.

Not really my point. My point was, after one full season in the NHL, both guys put up identical point stats and somewhat similar overall stats. Sanderson drafted 5th OA in 2020 Drysdale drafted 6th OA in 2020 That contract for Sanderson would have been very, very much akin to the Ducks giving Drysdale a $7 mil, 8-year deal LAST summer. Sanderson still has one more year of his ELC, and then that massive contract kicks in next season.

So then Drysdale is only gonna get $6.75 mil x 7? 😂

I don't know that he "wanted" $8 mil for 8 years, obviously. Just guessing that $8 mil was his ceiling, because that was the ask in arbitration. And guessing that he would have liked term, which would be 8 years. His "ask" for maximum value, for the player he is, to me would have been right around that $8 mil x 8 year mark. He contractually can't get more than 8 years, and his value on an AAV doesn't seem to be much north of $8 mil. He could have asked for $10 mil AAV for 8 years. I seriously doubt it, but, there ya go. Is your argument that $7 mil x 7 years was a cave on one party's part? Terry came way down in his ask, or GMPV came way up in his offer? I would guess that $7 mil x 7 years was close to a happy medium.

I do too, but sometimes I wonder if that is more the fan in me than the unbiased observer.

I don't see that straight-up comparison. Cronin seems like a guy with a plan and has a way that he needs his players to play to be successful. If we have a team of players that just want to play how they want, well, yikes.

My feeling after that series was that they might be in trouble for the next few years, and here we are, 5 years later. The coaching hire - after a bad rehire in Carlyle - was a big part of it, but personnel/pipeline wise they were not in a good place.

He did. 56 games into the next season.