BombaysTripleDeke
-
Posts
8,839 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
191
Content Type
Events
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Media Demo
Gallery
Posts posted by BombaysTripleDeke
-
-
Of course Marner scores a nasty goal after my post 😕
-
1
-
-
The Leafs are done. Getting boo'd on home ice and Marner putting forward a terrible effort. Matthews not on the bench to start the 3rd
-
Won’t be Stamkos’ final game as a Lightning
-
48 minutes ago, Fisix said:
if i'm any kind of sophisticated sports better, i am definitely NOT betting on the Duck's forward development pipeline in the long term. to me, that means you hold onto innate talent come hell or high water (from my cold dead hands, etc.).
i'm certainly NOT trading away inherent and mostly secured skill (i'm thinking Z, and somewhat Leo and TT) in hopes that someone else who needs to develop more (McT, Colangelo, Cutter, and also Leo) actually does get better.
i get it, there's a time component to getting value from trades. Cutter is untested in the NHL, but Philly got a good deal (relatively, considering Cutter was threatening UFA) because Cutter looks good in college and there weren't any NHL or AHL stats available. that trade could still go either way. "real" development projects (i.e., any draft pick outside the top... 10?) only go down in value the first 1-2 seasons, so if you want to max trade value, you gotta trade before you know what you're trading.
but, the Ducks aren't going to be contenders if we can't get a forward development pipeline in place. we've had it in goaltending for ages (though that might be going away), and we used to have in defensemen (unclear why that's slid into failure), but with forwards? in the past, we've really only had luck with huge innate talent (Kariya, Getz, Perry) and trades (Teemu, and everyone else). TT slips into and out of contention for a development success... and, to be frank, i'm of the opinion that his success is really all about him as an intellect and person, not about our forward development system (to date).
that is all to say - other teams can trade away budding talent for guaranteed performance and make a cup run... we aren't those teams, not in our current state. we can't even develop our non-top draft picks into reliable middle six forwards yet..., so any real talent we trade away, it's a huge loss for the org - we get one expensive forward we can use for a limited amount of time, but we can't shore them up with competent middle and bottom 6 forwards from our development corps, so we'd be in an even worse top-heavy situation than Toronto (fewer solid top 6, paying more for them/player, even less capable middle and bottom six).
The development pipeline will be interesting under Verbeek, Mclvane and the people carrying it out. Hard to be much worse. Next season, guys like gaucher, pastujov in their 2nd full pro seasons with Pitre, Myatovic and Sidorov coming up
-
2
-
-
35 minutes ago, saskduckfan said:
Good post, just two issues though. You mention Carolina would want a forward prospect and then toss the names Myatovic and Terrance out, who are both prospects that Ducks fans sit there and go "I have no idea why Verbeek picked these guys when he did when there was better available". It seems there are lots of people here that question those two picks and just because Myatovic was picked in the 2nd round does not mean he is going to be a good player. He really didn't do much in his short time in the AHL so I would not be valuing him very high that him and a late 1st are going to get a top 6 forward.
The second, you mention being worried about next years 2nd round pick and it being recouped in a Vatrano trade at the TDL. The problem with that is if you are trading next years second or whatever for a top 6 right wing, your plan is to be competing for the playoffs and if by somehow that is the case for the Ducks at the TDL, you don't trade your assets. So no, they would not recoup the pick for Vatrano and if they did trade him at the TDL and were in a playoff spot, then the reasoning would be because he is having a down year and not doing much which then would not warrant a second round pick.
As for the lottery, you can argue that the Ducks have moved up in the draft lottery. 2005 draft, Ducks went from being 22nd in the league which would have been the 9th pick to 2nd overall. Although that draft was done a little differently the argument can be made the Ducks did move up.
Draft picks are lottery tickets. Brock Faber hadn’t played a single game of pro hockey when he got traded. Neither has Terrance and myaotic played 12 AHL games. Teams value different players and their draft slots hold some value. Maybe they like Pitre more, who knows. It’s simply trying to assess the cost of acquiring a player but I think we have a pretty good ball park.
Unless the ducks are firmly in a playoff spot by next TDL, they are sellers. Philly traded a top-4 defenseman at the TDL in Sean Walker and I believe they were as competitive as can be for a playoff spot. So, the Ducks could go the same thing with Vatrano rather than him walk for nothing. We’ll see what Verbeek does this summer to help this team to play meaningful march hockey.
even if the Ducks don’t recoup the 2nd round pick for Gauthier then I don’t think matters ultimately. If he turns into a perennial top-6 forward then it’s a home run trade for us
-
mark it on your calendars, ya’ll
-
1
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:
Kocnecny is a realistic target as Philly is in a deep rebuild. I'm not sending them roster players or prospects though. We have an abundance of picks.
Philly had such a wild season. The Gauthier trade, Carter hart, couturier drama and they missed the playoffs on the last game of the season. They exceeded expectations by a lot. Do they not fully blow it up now? Trading konecny would certainly indicate they are. I’ll be fascinated to see what they do.
Id look into Konecny also for futures if they are trying to trade him. Our own firsts and Zegras, Leo, cutter lol, McTavish, minty, luneau, zellweger are all off the table. He’s only got one year left on his deal
-
44 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:
The Philly rumor mill is Zegras<-----> Konecny + Ristolainen.
They are just still salty about Gauthier because that is a laughable trade
-
1
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, saskduckfan said:
No they were not jokes, but the Ducks do not have what would be the equivalent of those returns that they would be willing to trade. Use Fiala, so Faber and a mid 1st round pick in 2022 which was 19th overall in a bit stronger draft class. So trying to find a similar return from the Ducks would be Luneau and not sure where that mid 1st is. The Oilers first could end up being 29th overall in a weak draft. Even at 21st or 22nd or whatever it is, this draft is still considered to be weak. Does it hold the same value as 19th in a draft that was stronger then this one? Probably not. So now you have to add as well. Does Verbeek trade Luneau? A RHD that sounds like he has big plans for. Probably not. So what does that leave? Noah Warren, an unproven defenseman in the NHL. Ok so now you need Warren and more to make the trade. He is nowhere near considered one of our top prospects. So now you are looking at Warren and maybe next year's first top 5 protected. But then Verbeek is giving up his precious 1st round pick. Can't see that happening. Warren and a 2nd is nowhere close to fair value. Or does Verbeek work on a trade with a player he had issues with in signing and both sides have hard feelings for each other. A guy that the coach likes to bench and single out, a coach hand picked by Verbeek. Hmmm, maybe we are onto something, especially if Verbeek can get more out of Carolina. Hey look, Anaheim has an abundance of centers on the team and is a strength to trade from. Do you see McTavish, Carlsson, or Zegras as a 3rd line center and being happy about it? Didn't think so. Zegras has already said he would rather play center vs wing. So you stick him on the wing, his contract ends, and he bolts because he wants to be a center. Or does Verbeek make a trade from strength for a need. Ducks need a top 6 right shot winger. In order to get that the Ducks will have to trade something decent. Verbeek gave up Drysdale AND a 2nd for Cutter, who was a player demanding a trade. Verbeek could have easily gone one for one with that one. So we already have past instances where Verbeek gives up more in trades.
So with an overload of centers, and lets say the Ducks win the lottery and add Celebrini, can you see a trade of the second problem hold out, who publicly stated he wasnt happy with negotiations last summer. He already traded the other. I can easily see Verbeek offering Zegras in return for Necas and a 2nd or Necas and a first with another add from the Ducks or Necas and a prospect. It doesnt have to be a one for one trade, but I can easily see the framework of a trade worked around those two.
Fiala is far superior player than Necas which is why you aren’t giving up the same value for him. Also, the prospect depends who Carolina would want and they are absolutely fine on defense with morrow and Nishkin in their system. They’d likely be targeting a forward rather than Luneau or Warren, which is why I mentioned Myatovic, Terrance who have close draft slots up Faber as 2nd round picks. I think they’d prefer an actual NHL player since they are in their contending window right now rather than futures which is why I mentioned the Vatrano alternative. Odds are Necas stays in Carolina but it’s good to monitor that situation.
I agree that the Ducks will have to trade something decent to get a top-6 forward. That’s why I listed what recent top-6 forwards have been traded for. Zegras is better than decent and still hasn’t hit his potential. He was a Calder trophy finalist. They aren’t trading him this offseason unless he really wants out now and they are getting an elite asset back which Necas is not and adding a late first doesn’t equal one either imo.
We discussed in the Gauthier thread that if verbeek could have gotten Gauthier straight up for drysdale then he would have. Other teams were making offers and adding a 2nd round pick in 2025 is worth it for one of the best offensive prospects in hockey. If we are worried about next years 2nd round pick then we truly are screwed. Plus, we could easily recoup that in a Vatrano trade at the TDL.
If the Ducks somehow got Celebrini that doesn’t mean that it will force the Ducks into a trade this summer because of the overload at center. It could in future seasons but If they did then it’ll be because they got too good of an offer to refuse. Of course, we ain’t getting him. I think we are only team in the NHL (sans Vegas) to never move up in the draft lottery
-
2
-
-
2 hours ago, saskduckfan said:
I'm not the one on here saying we should trade for him. I'm just saying Carolina holds more value in this guy then a 2nd round pick and Vatrano. Maybe that offer gets it done if Vatrano has more then one season of 36 goals and isnt a pending UFA that Carolina has to open their wallets for and isnt 30 years old. The Canes have more value in Necas then that or a late 1st in a weak draft and one of our B prospects that we question ourselves why we drafted them.
Im saying those offers would never get Necas. Vatrano and a 2nd or Oilers 1st and one of Terrance or Myatovic. Those are jokes. The Hurricanes would value their guy closer to Zegras and any trade would start with a player along that caliber coming back, or the Ducks top 5 pick. Would it ge one for one, doubtful, but something like Necas and a 3rd or prospect for Zegras is probably pretty close.
Remember the Ducks need a top 6 righ shot RW and have an overflow of top 6 centers.
Were the Fiala and and Debrincat trades jokes? Those actually happened and nothing close to Zegras was involved to get either player. Do you think Necas is more valuable than they are?
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, saskduckfan said:
I know thats why I took his point total over 82 games. The previous two seasons Zegras had 156GP 46G 80A 126P -45 and Necas 160GP 42G 69A 111P +10. There is not much difference stat wise between the two and each one if their teams likely holds them to similar value.
Zegras out produced Necas then while being on a bottom-5 team with a coach that everyone laments while Necas has been on a Stanley cup contender with brind a’mour. Hes also two years younger. Not to mention Zegras being injured. That’s why I asked for a comparable trade to justify the value.
The difference is that no team with the Zegras level player is trading him for Necas…except for Carolina
-
1 hour ago, saskduckfan said:
Zegras had a 50 point drop from last season to this season and if you factor his PPG based on 82 games he would have been on pace for 40 points, a 25 point drop. Your point?
That he was injured and missed over 50 games. Necas missed 5 games this year.
-
31 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:
Sure he does. Makes more sense than paying Strome $5M. As far as his points drop off, Zegras only put up 15 points this season. If you look at the 22-23 season JK put up 43 points which is around McTavish territory. If JK slips into that 3C role and can get back to being a 40+ point player then he will be worth his contract.
Not when you’re paying them both together for 3 more years and the kotkaniemi for three more after that. He’s finished under 30 points in two of the last three seasons, with only one 40 point season. Strome has 3 straight 40 point seasons and makes only 200k more aav. It’s chasing bad money with even more bad money imo
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, hoxxey said:
You're kidding right? Cronin has nothing to worry about. Now. Then. or ever. Results don't matter to the ducks.
Nah, if the ducks are in the lottery again next year, he’s likely getting axed like Quinn did
-
48 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:
What does a fair contract for Marchessault look like?
He’s interesting, about a 60-65 point player 25-30 goal scorer, with two outlier years, one being this year with 42 goals and 69 points. Metrics are better than Stamkos, but hasn’t ever had the counting stats Stamkos has had. He’ll be 34 in December. Marchessault made comments around the TDL about trying to set his family up well. So he’s looking to get paid with term. 5mil per year is the most he’s ever gotten. I would guess he’s probably around Terry’s contract. I don’t know the guy, but based on the comments, I’d assume he’d probably go where he gets term.
There’s fair and there is what the Ducks would have to offer him which would like be 4 years at around 7 mil aav as my guess
-
31 minutes ago, saskduckfan said:
So you are way over evaluating what Vatrano and a 2nd would get and way over valuing Mayotvic and Terrance. A late 1st and a 2nd would not get Necas. This is a player we are talking about that has had back to back 20 goal seasons, 71 points two years ago and is a top 6 RW, exactly what the Ducks need. This is a prime example of you have to give quality in order to get quality. A late 1st in a weak draft isn't going to move the needle. Neither will either of the two prospects especially when our own fan base call them horrible picks. Sorry. If you called Carolina offering a late 1st and 2nd or a 2nd and one of those prospects, they hang up.
What comp are you using to show that Necas could command Zegras in a return?
Again, look at what fiala (19th overall and Brock faber before he played a NHL game) went for and even the Debrincat trade to Detroit (conditional 1st in 2024) Kubalik, a guy drafted in the 3rd round in 2020 and a 4th round pick. Is Necas better than them? I don’t think he is at all.
Necas had an 18 point drop off from last season (71 points to 53). Over the last 3 seasons he has a total of 164 points compared to Debrincat who has 211 and fiala who has 230. Necas should cost less than those guys imo
-
2
-
-
quinn got axed after two years. Pay attention, Cronin-
1
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:
I don't think they will trade Necas. They need scoring forwards. They would be more likely to trade Kotkaniemi as he has mostly flounder this season. He's the definition of a player that needs a change of scenery and Carolina could be convinced to give him up for a cheap price. He's still young and fits in with the Ducks core.
Carolina would have to give up something to move JK. He’s got 6 more years at 4.8 mil per for a guy who just put up 27 points this season. He makes no sense for the Ducks imo. I bet they keep Necas because they are in their contending window and guys usually re-sign unless there is major internal issue.
-
16 minutes ago, saskduckfan said:
Necas' value is equivalent to Trevor Zegras' value. A one for one swap would be equal. What do you think his value is? A 2nd round pick and Lundestrom?
There is no GM dead or alive that is trading Zegras for Necas. Not even Peter Chiarelli would do that.
It depends on what Carolina needs. I’d say something along the lines of Vatrano and our 2nd round pick.
if you want to do futures. Then I think you’re looking at the Edmonton 1st + the Boston 2nd as far as being in the ballpark. If they want a prospect then maybe mayotic or Terrance instead.
-
1
-
2
-
-
42 minutes ago, PlzInsertLiquor said:
I love Necas and think he would fit this young core amazingly. I also want to have the longest competitive window we can, and you can’t lock up both a young RHW and a young RHD long term, without eventually running out of money for the current young core.
I don’t see them getting two younger guys to fill the RHD and RW spots this summer. They are more likely to go through free agency for both than to trade for both. Either way, the Ducks can still comfortably do that and sign all of the RFAs. They have so much flexibility and the focus is almost certainly that they have the space necessary keep all the key young players. It all depends on what you think the players can command. Right now, we think it’s almost impossible to know. If we are concerned about not being able to afford players, that should be the result of too many of them taking such big steps forward that it significantly increases their price.
I’ve always wanted the problem to be that we have too many good players. We still have two years to see how that plays out
-
2
-
-
58 minutes ago, PlzInsertLiquor said:
It’s almost as if you didn’t read what I said. I’m all for trading for a Necas, but then when you sign him to 7 years at $7 mil AAV, you basically are going to have to trade one of Leo / Zegras / McT / Dostal / Cutter / Minty / Top 5 pick / Zelly / Tristian….. as you won’t be able to afford all your players.
So the short term, higher AAV helps the now and doesn’t hurt the future.
That’s not true imo unless the Ducks make other big, expensive moves, particularly in free agency. The Ducks have over 67 mil in cap space for those guys by 2026, assuming they all sign long-term deals without any bridges. This years first pick won’t be a RFA until 2027, assuming they jump straight to the NHL also. Thats when Killorn, Strome and Gibson are off the books also, if not sooner.
Not all of those guys are likely to command the kind of money that would make signing them all an issue either imo.
49 minutes ago, saskduckfan said:Not to worry. If the Ducks were to trade for Necas, one of those players would likely be going back the other way.
What do you think Necas’ value is? 7 of those assets are untouchable unless you are trading for an elite star player and it makes no sense for Carolina to trade for zellweger or luneau. They’d need vatrano with Guentzel and teravainen being UFAs this summer.
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:
Didn't mention McTavish either. He just answered questions about specific players.
About the draft, sounds like he's looking at the U-18's coming up.
Yeah, seems like it was just who he was asked about but it’s weird that minty was left out because he was the rookie that exceeded expectations more than anyone imo
-
1 hour ago, g20topdogg said:
The only young guy he didn’t mention was mintyukov. Maybe he just wasn’t specifically asked about him. Had some praise for zellweger and playing is off side. Really liked colangelo.
when it comes to the draft. I have no confidence on predicting what he’ll do if Leshunov is off the board and we don’t get Macklin
-
43 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:
No team is going to give Stamkos 4 years, and if they do the. I’m glad he isn’t here.
I think a good team can get him for 3 but it’ll cost the ducks a premium in both term and aav
2024 Playoffs
in NHL Talk
Posted
The stage is set for him to take a lot of heat but I don’t want Marner anywhere near this team