g20topdogg
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Posts posted by g20topdogg
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14 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:
Just a refresher:
If the Ducks finish last, they have the best odds of picking 1st OA.
Also, those odds are 1 in 4, which are not that good.
Don't get too attached to some outcome that is more unlikely than not.
The 1 in 4 thing needs to be put in perspective. The rest of the league shares the 3 in 4 and every other team has worse odds. The team with the best odds still has a much better chance of winning it than anyone else. There's teams with a 1-2% chance of winning it, which statistically they could win, but it's highly unlikely. Teams 2 and 3 combined have almost the same chance of winning as number 1. So yeah technically it's 1 in 4 but really the odds are much more in favor of number 1.
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10 hours ago, tommer-1 said:
I feel like the Ducks REALLY need a couple of guys on the blueline who can just KILL attacks and entries. Guys who just erase or negate plays with their hockey IQ and their positioning/skating and their stick/body.
They have no one like that currently. Fowler comes the closest. They could also use two really good defensive forwards. Guys who can do the same thing and turn those plays into offense.
You know a small guy like Vats would do this team wonders. He could get shots through and he blocked shots like he was superman. After he left I still think the defense became much worse.
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3 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:
This current Ducks team feels to me like the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. Check out the ages and production levels of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog on that team and tell me if they remind you of anyone on the Ducks. That team improved by 47 points the next season, thanks mostly to their stars realizing their star potential. If we get the right coach and some more supporting pieces in place, I don’t see why that can’t be Zegras, McTavish, and Terry with the Ducks next season. Obviously a 47 point improvement isn’t really realistic, but New Jersey and Seattle are both looking at 30+ point improvements this season, so it’s not crazy to think that a team full of young talent that is growing into their big boy pants can pull that off. With a few right moves to properly support our budding stars, why can’t the Ducks do that in 2023-24?
That 16-17 Avs team was actually led by their current coach who took over for Roy after he resigned. And that terrible record they had was more of a blip on their record and the team not playing to their potential. We're not in the same place, we're just a really bad team that's having a really bad season whereas the Avs shouldn't have been that bad. The points that their stars produced do look similar and they really blew up after that off year. Maybe we see something like that from our guys but I'm not so sure. This team just doesn't seem complete enough right now to justify numbers like that. Sure with the right moves this off season and our high pick me should see a big improvement, not to mention the huge improvement we should make once we hire a real coach! But I'm not ready to say we'll make that big of a jump. A lot of things have to go right in order for that to happen. We're on pace for about 60 pts this year so a jump of around 20-30 points is very possible but I'm not sure it's very likely though right now. We have so many holes to fill with real nhl talent and our d corps is basically going to get rebuilt completely. That's a lot of changes to be made and sure guys can come in and seamlessly integrate into the team but more than likely it's going to take some time for the new guys to gel. I think realistically our first real chance at the playoffs should be after next season. But I do expect us to make a significant jump next season if for no other reason than Eakins leaves and a new coach comes in.
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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:
I think the best case scenario is a wild card spot next season, with or without the lottery luck. Mostly because I strongly believe that Zegras, McTavish, and Terry are going to all be 65-75+ point players next season under the new coach/system. But the Ducks absolutely NEED: (1) a new coach, (2) a top-6 LW, (3) a solid top-4 RHD with snarl like Severson or Soucy (who plays both sides), and (4) another middle-6 forward that brings a fast, heavy forecheck and some scoring (like an Oskar Sundqvist type). All of those are very doable given the Ducks cap and roster situation. Then I think they could add another beefy bottom-pair veteran D-man like a Tyler Myers or Marco Scandella (if healthy) to play opposite one of the kids (like Zellweger) and they'd be in pretty good shape to make a run at 90-95 points next season.
Neither of those guys has earned a shot. I've seen them live a couple of times, and they have no business being in the NHL. They've been pretty bad statistically all season in San Diego too. Perreault has 14 points (6G/8A) in 35 games and has only registered 48 shots on goal. Tracey has 21 points (8G/13A) in 44 games and has registered just 51 SOG. That's pathetic production for what they were drafted to do. Compare the Gulls best forward, Rocco Grimaldi, who has 21G/25A (46 pts) in 48 games with 140 SOGs.
I'm not sure they'll make 90-95 points, that just seems like a really really big stretch. I could see maybe 80-90 but probably closer to 80 than 90.
I agree with Gorb, in two years we should be playoff bound. Anything longer than that would mean something has gone wrong in the rebuild. This will also be the 5th year that we're out of the playoffs. I'm hoping that we're not Buffalo where we miss the playoffs for over a decade! We had some bad management but not that bad.
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5 hours ago, Sexlaf15 said:
Yeah, a lot of moving parts that go into rebuilding. I think Verbeek has largely been decent so far, some of his moves haven’t really worked out. I still think Strome and Vatrano are valuable pieces on a better version of this team, Klingberg has been bad, but he’s found money really. He’s avoided any bad contracts and has an absolutely buttload of picks and prospects in the cupboards. I think we’re in a good spot.
Not to mention we're also going to get even more this TDL. I think we're still in a position cap wise where we have tons of flexibility moving forward. Hopefully we get a really good high pick in this draft as well. I'm hopeful for the future but still somewhat concerned about the present coaching and what it might leave on the players. We'll never really know for sure but we might have hurt the development of some of the guys. Still like I said I'm optimistic about the future. I think we try to push for the playoffs next year too. Enough of this bottom trash!
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5 hours ago, Jasoaks said:
yeah it's gonna be interesting to see if they go for another goalie at the TDL...Stolarz would do really well there actually
Was thinking the same thing. Stolarz could be a real good add to ANY team looking to bolster their goalie depth. He's been pretty good considering our team ( or lack there of!) and could help in the playoffs if the #1 goes down or falters.
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58 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:
I'm not just talking hits though, he's doing a lot of slashing, spearing, cross-checking etc...after the whistle, chirping to levels that are apparently crossing the line. I should say he "WAS" doing that. These past 2 games I really didn't see much. I think he's cooled down from whatever was on his back the first 50 games of the season. Anyway, it's just stuff i saw throughout the season that was more apparent than last. I don't really have time to go back to every game and find them all haha but i will end with i don't think he's dirty. But i do think he may be trying to be someone he's not and it comes off as "crossing the line." He's 2nd in PIM and is already at 6 more PIMs than last season in 23 less games lol
I think Zegras is just an overall animated emotional kind of guy. So anything he does just kind of seems that much bigger compared to others. He seems to be trying to mix it up and play harder but that might also just stem from him trying to get the team going by getting involved in the extracurricular activities. I don't think he's dirty either and he hasn't gotten to crossing the line. But we kind of need someone else and not Zegras to do that because Z is there to score, let others take that other stuff on. Maybe it's just him trying to be a leader and be an example even if it's not his game. I don't mind it that much but him sitting in the penalty box doesn't help us much either.
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11 hours ago, tommer-1 said:
Terry is on pace for 20-21 goals this season - without missing games (although he came out early yesterday).
I don't see Terry getting more than $7 m AAV, and probably not even getting $7 m. I could see him getting 7-8 years and about $6.25-$6.75 m, and he and his agent should jump all over that. He's a good player, but last season's 37-goal performance looks a lot more like an inflated shooting % (19.3%) season than a sustainable projection for him (other years of 5.5%, 10.1%, and 8.9% this season).
He's the guy I would be wary of overpaying.
Terry kind of reminds me of William Karlsson. That first year he really popped off with Vegas then decided to bet on himself again when he wasn't offered what he thought he could get (signed a one year deal) and didn't put up the points again the following year to settle for a smaller contract (sounds kind of like Klingberg!). But perhaps Terry is just missing someone like Getzy to pass him pucks. He could argue that after all but you're probably right he won't get what he wants.
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36 minutes ago, Ice_Attack said:
As a season seat holder from 1993-2010, there's one thing that sticks in my head from the 2007 successful season. I had the fortunate experience of having a drink with Brian Burke in the JD club that year, and he relayed he told his players, "If you're not gonna hit when given the opportunity within the rules, then you can pack your bags and will be heading out of sunny California soon. There's no place on my team for pu$$ies." That year teams knew they were in for some punishment when they played the Ducks. This team acts like a bunch of scared wimps on the physical side. There is no leadership on the ice, off the ice, nor on the bench (by a joke of a coach). This is why I say dump the GM and the coaching staff. Add to that any player who's a wimp and afraid to hit their opponent like Fowler. Watching the game tonight against the Blackhawks (the worst team in the west) validates my point. There were endless opportunities to finish a hit that didn't happen that resulted in a hawk's player staying on his feet to keep a play alive when it was preventable.
We aren't a hard hitting team by any means but we are on the back end of a back to back so the guys are also tired. That said who's going to remain? Zegras would be gone. Terry gone. Fowler gone. Drysdale gone. A good chunk of the core roster would be gone and guys in our system would also then need to go. It's not the same league as 2007. Guys are skilled and play a different style of game. We lack toughness but we need to have a good mix of skill and grit to compete in todays nhl.
What stood out to me on the hawks game was just how much worse the hawks are than us. Sure they're missing Toews and were missing Terry but we're playing a b2b AND the team flew in very late last night. The broadcasting crew mentioned they came to the hotel around 2am. The hawks just are that much worse than we are. After watching that game I don't think we can out tank those guys.
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Let's say we don't pick in the top 4, maybe 5th or 6th. One of the top 4 passes on Michkov and he's available you gotta pick him then no? If we're in that position I think PV would choose him for sure. I mean you gotta right? Or we still pass?
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1 hour ago, Belarus said:
"And in other news, Russian sources have confirmed that Putin has called for permanent cease fire in Ukraine and is currently withdrawing his troops. The Kremlin has also confirmed that Putin will be apologizing to the United Nations and has offered reparations to all combatants involved. When asked about why the sudden and unexpected change of heart, Putin replied, 'We have been holding our own with Ukraine and their allies for months. But we simply can not survive Gary Bettman, a man I personally fear, joining their cause. We therefore surrender at midnight tonight.'"
Would that be considered a "lock out"?
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6 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:
I’m fine drafting Fantilli or Carlsson, but I can’t pass Michkov past 5 or so. I’ll take the chance, and you just gotta take the best player available.
I agree. Sure there's the wait but look at guys like Kaprizov, he's dynamic. We'll be fine in the meantime while he plays out his contract in the KHL and once he comes over he would instantly have a huge impact. Plus a time line of 3+ years should have us as a possible contender and if he sees the potential to win I think he comes over. Is it risky? Sure. But I still think you gotta pick bpa and he would be that guy.
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6 minutes ago, Gorbachav55 said:
That's dedication to the tank. I also see that Columbus is losing to the trainwreck that is Vancouver and Florida lost to the Kings. Blech.
There's no reason for Florida to tank. If anything it's better for them not to so they don't hand Montreal a higher pick.
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17 hours ago, hoxxey said:
I would love to know your definition of "recent" with all due respect. The product on the ice for at LEAST 5 years has been abysmal. I remember the great teams with Getzlaf, Perry, Kessler, etc - really great if not just a little unlucky.
These past teams? Not even close.
Sure you make a good point about meddlesome but come on - there is a balance there and I don't see it being attempted. Guys on this board used to post often about the "dumpster diving" antics of the previous GM. I don't see that sort of thing being tolerated in other teams or in other sports. Hey, I really want the Ducks to be good and to contend in games. Watching these games is time "we" will never get back.
We don't really know if that's something that the owners set or just s BM kind of thing. Maybe Bob just thought he might strike rich if one of these dumpster diving episodes panned out. It's not to say that he didn't get some good value from time to time but overall it didn't really do much for the team. I guess we'll just have to see with PV if he continues to dumpster dive then it's probably the owners. Bob just couldn't get big deals done when we needed them. It's like he was kind of a step behind when it came time to get stuff done to push for that championship.
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On 1/21/2023 at 10:16 AM, Ice_Attack said:
Team has zero leadership on the ice, off the ice, on the bench, and in the locker room. As we all know the coaching staff is a complete joke, but personnel changes are needed from a competent GM to garner seasoned players who can lead the young talent. I don't see this happening anytime soon, and it appears the owners are just using team as a tax right off.
I'm not sure that's 100% true. We're a small market team so the owners are careful to spend money in down years sure but we were up against the cap for a period of time. Maybe Vegas helped with that but either way you can't spend to get out of this situation. We need proper drafting and development. Obviously a new coaching staff as well. The owners just seem more hands off than some others which can be good or bad depending on the GM.
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3 hours ago, HockeyIzCool said:
We're going to be Sellers at the TDL, not buyers. But the bigger problem is that we have nobody really desirable, that another team would want. We traded of most of them at last year's TDL. If Verbeek calls other clubs, the names that are going to come up are Zegras, Drysdale, Terry, McTavish. When Verbeek mentions the names Henrique or Shattenkirk, if he doesn't hear a click, he'll get an offer of 4th or 5th Round picks, or a 3rd line player.
I'll take the picks. Most of these guys aren't some kind of game changes and could be picked up nearly every off season and it doesn't even have to be on the first day or two. What I'm saying is trade who you can for picks. You never know, wasn't Manson a 7th round pick? But as far as Hank goes, keep him for the remainder of his contract. He fits well with guys like Terry and he seems like a good leadership kind of guy too. I'm fine with keeping him, we're not in cap trouble and he seems to help us make that transition to the young guys.
3 hours ago, HockeyIzCool said:I dislike Eakins as much as the next guy, and was ASTOUNDED that they picked up his option for this season, after Murray was let go.
But honestly, with this overall roster, could another coach have done much better? I feel like we would be, but the difference would probably be marginal. And at least now, it's likely we're going to get a Top 5 pick out of it.
The bigger problem is the fact we've rarely been a club that went into the UFA market to acquire a game changing player. We'll always try to get a middle level player on the "cheap," after half the league has already passed on them. I'm not saying a marquee player would turn this team around, but if the idea is to build the club around guys like Terry, Zegras, McTavish & Drysdale, we're in big trouble for the foreseeable future. Even if those players have the potential to become superstars and leaders, unless we have some real talent surrounding them, it's going to be the 2030's before we'll be serious contenders for the Cup. If we are at all.
I think we may be underestimating what a good coach can do. I think we would see quite the improvement. We're not a playoff team but we're definitely not this bad. I wouldn't mind if we brought back BB. I'm with some others though that say maybe we should look elsewhere but I think we could easily be 10pts higher with BB as the coach. Wouldn't that be fun though? An actual system that promotes high scoring. We probably don't win any defensive awards but at least we lose in style. Although, depends on who he picks as his assistants we could also be very defensive minded like we were when we had trouble scoring. We kinda had it so good that if BM wasn't so cheap we might have another cup.
But to get back to the question, I think we'd see a much different team. We'd actually look like an nhl team.
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6 hours ago, gotchabari said:
His turnover stats are off-the-charts in comparison to players of his age, playing time, opponents, position... any measure.
He has has multiple singular games at or near double digit giveaways per 60. His average thankfully came down in December, but it's inconsistent since then. He'll have 0, then 8 the next game. He used to be double the next guy down (which is now Comtois), but has come down a little.
Before December, he had an average above 6 with the next player down being below 3.
Aren't a lot of his turnovers from him trying to puck handle around the entire team? I think he just gets caught more from trying to 1v1 guys too often. But other forwards and d also need to support him more for other passing options.
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2 hours ago, BlibberBluff said:
Seeing rumors that Bo Horvat will be going to the Bruins. I am shocked at this. I’m shocked the Bruins want to risk doing anything to the team that has 5 regulation losses over half-way through the season. That’s a big change. I remember hearing Teemu talk about going to Burke at the 2007 trade deadline, not asking for any big changes as this team felt special. And all we got was Brad May. I guess if they are going to mess with chemistry, the earlier the better to make sure they can right the ship if necessary. But if I’m Don Sweeney, I’m not touching this roster!
Wait what? They only have 5 regulation losses so far?!
Hold on I need to check this....
This is true! And they also have 4 ot losses. WE have 4 regulation wins. Let that sink in....
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11 hours ago, gotchabari said:
They seem to be going 2 for 1, which seems reasonable.
Stolarz is almost certain to start tonight on the B2B.
It doesn't really matter who's in net. This team is garbage. Just get the "go directly to jail. Do not pass go. Do not collect any points" card.
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1 hour ago, FanSince1993 said:
30 лет болею за эту команду. Никогда мне не было так стыдно за этих колхозников как сейчас.
Don't worry, things should hopefully get better soon. But this rebuild is very painful as a fan.
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6 hours ago, tommer-1 said:
Hughes is underpaid right now, though. Zegras will get $8 mil x 8 years, unless he wans to sign a bridge contract.
Terry is the guy who is not helping the value of his next contract this season. Be nice to see him turn it up. After last season, he looked like a lock for 35 goals for the next few seasons. Right now he is looking to be less valuable than Zegras to ANA.
But he will still get a nice payday. Maybe $6.5 mil or so. Unless he goes on a goal-scoring spree, which he is definitely capable of. But it would have to be about 25-28 goals in 38 games. That's a heater!
Yes but couldn't both Zegras and Terry argue that this roster and coach are preventing them from putting up better points? Maybe he could even argue that he might be able to put up better points than Hughes if he was in the same situation. I'm sure PV will want to try to use the #s to his advantage but realistically speaking were also talking about one on the worst teams in NHL history. McDavid is on a better overall team and he's trying to drag the oilers into the playoffs. What do you think he'd be able to do on this team? Lol let's keep expectations in line here. Z and Terry should be paid for the future productivity they provide and I think that given a better coach with hopefully better talent they will show that. But given the production it's hard not to think their value has dropped and since the beginning of the year I think it has somewhat made an impact. But I think everyone understands that the current situation the team is in kind of negates any value lost in their next contracts.
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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:
It's actually his offensive production that will keep him from getting to $8M. His scoring pace is lower than last season, and is currently at around .077 points/game. Zegras and Hughes were both drafted in 2019 and Hughes put up 1.143 pts/game last season and is currently pacing this season at 1.25 pts/game. Zegras' mild offensive production has made Hughes no longer a good comparable, which actually might benefit the Ducks long-term (thanks, Eakins!).
At the start of the season, I thought Zegras would certainly get 8 years in the $7M-$8M range, but now I'm not so sure. Given how this season has gone, maybe he decides to bridge instead like Roope Hintz did, with the hope for a much larger pay day once the Ducks are good again and there is more cap available. If you believe Rutherford at his presser yesterday, the cap will be at $88M in two years, so a bridge deal could mean a huge payday for Zegras down the road. And if there was ever a kid who would bet on himself with the shorter term deal....
I also think my expectations have been tapered a little bit. But he is playing in Eakins system though so I would assume he can be much better. I still think he gets paid close to Hughes but probably more like 7.5 to 8. He's only going to get better. But he's had a somewhat disappointing season offensively so far. Now McT I think has raised my expectations. He seems like he will probably end up being the better player.
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19 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:
Unless you consider the lottery a device to determine who "wins" the right to pick 1st OA.
Which, as far as I can determine, is one of the main purposes it serves. It's not like teams opt out of the lottery.
"We're gonna have a lottery drawing with all these ping pong balls with teams' logos on them, and we'll draw them to see where everybody picks. For the first two picks, we'll do two separate drawings. The lower you finished, the more balls you have in the drawing. Ok, first team is Team X. You were in 13th place so you only get to move up to pick 3rd. Next team is team Y. You were in 15th place so you get to pick 5th. Sorry Team Z, you lost the lottery even though you finished 32nd and will unfortunately have to pick 1st because you didn't win the lottery."
Or, even better, if Team Z does "win" the lottery - get their ping pong ball pulled -, that's not really a win, because they didn't move up.
Very strange. Like saying the Jaguars did not win that game yesterday. The Chargers lost.
It's lawyer-speak, imo.
Yeah I guess you only "win" if you move up. But technically speaking any team that is 23rd or lower can win the 1OA. What does this really accomplish other than help the bottom teams be at the bottom? I mean in terms of drafting the top players. Because I guess a team can be outside the playoffs (on the bubble) and win constantly? Idk it doesn't prevent tanking either. Maybe they're preventing teams like the rangers from moving up too much and it hurts the bottom teams?
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2 hours ago, perry_mvp said:
Fisix found a more in depth nhl.com link above so please read it.
(3) Limit on Teams Winning a Lottery Draw
No single team will be able to advance in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two (2) times in any five (5) year period. This limitation will not affect a Club’s ability to retain its presumptive Draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the Club moving down in Draft Order to the extent other Clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick.
Montreal did not advance in the 1st draw in the 2022 draft even though they won the 1st draw. Advancing is tied in with winning the draw not simply winning the draw. So the NHL put a loophole in.
Yeah that's the way I read that too. It's kind of weird but whatever I guess. Maybe we'll get more clarification once the draft gets closer though.
The Tankathon Thread
in NHL Talk
Posted
Until you take goal differential into account 🤣🤣